tl;dr: all points are equal, but all wins (and draws) aren’t

We all know that every game is worth three points, and a win on a cold, rainy Wednesday in Stoke (er, Burnley) gives you the same three points as the biggest Super Sunday showdown. But we also know that the best team in the league can only affect the points you accrue in two games a season; even if you lose to City twice, you could still get 108 points. I started to think about what points and what games are most valuable for a team challenging for the league.

My gut instinct was that 83 points represented a “good season,” and so I’d build up or down from there. Then, going through the tables for the last decade – we’ll call that the Mansour epoch, and assume that all of those points totals will stand for all time – I revised this up to 86. Some years, 86 would still have seen you finish 14 points off the top, but as it feels like we *may* be coming back to 88-93 points for winning the league, I think 86 points is more reasonable. So, what does it take to get to a baseline of 86?

Let’s start with home games. Is it reasonable to say that a challenging team should win all of their home games? Honestly, that way madness lies. I think it’s logical to say that against your strongest rivals, a home draw is actually a fine result, as long as you’ve taken care of your business against everyone else. So, two home draws against the strongest teams in the league (as of MW13, that’s Arsenal and Man City, with Liverpool slotting in since these two can’t play themselves), combined with 17 home wins against everyone else. That starts us out with 53 points.

What does a good season on the road look like, though? A few years ago, I was explaining Crystal Palace to my wife. I described it as a “pack a lunch” game, because it was going to be a long day and you’ll know you’ve been in a fight at the end of it, but “good teams win these games.” That describes a lot of the road games in the bottom half of the table. Goodison can be a cauldron, but you’ve got to go there and win. Kenilworth Road is like playing in a broom closet, but dropping points there really hurts (looking at you, Liverpool).

With 53 points at home, you need to take 33 points on the road to get to our baseline of 86 points. That’s wins against the bottom 11 sides in the league. If you don’t wrap up all 11 of those games (which currently includes going into Stamford Bridge), you’ll have to find those points elsewhere.

That leaves us with eight other away games, to either get past 86 points, or to try to pull back points you’ve dropped elsewhere: your “money-makers.” If you feel like it’s a 92-point league this year, you’re going to need to find at least six points from these games (or turn one of your home draws into a win).

In short:

17 home wins x 3 = 51 points

2 home draws against top 2 teams x 1 = 2 points

11 away wins vs Bottom 11 x 3 = 33 points

8 money-makers = 24 points

So, if we’re looking at an 86-point baseline, where do the top teams in the league stack up through Matchweek 13? Keep in mind that these numbers can shift not only with who wins and loses, but also with teams swapping 2nd/3rd and 9th/10 place.

Man City

  • 17 Home Wins: -0- (no dropped points)
  • 2 Home Draws: -0- (Liv 0)
  • 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -5 (Che -2, Wol, -3)
  • 8 money-makers: +6 (ManU +3, Arse 0, WHU +3)
    • Games Remaining: 5
  • Total: +1

Liverpool

  • 17 Home Wins: -0- (no dropped points)
  • 2 Home Draws: -NA- (haven’t place MC or Arse at home)
  • 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -4 (Lut -2, Che -2)
  • 8 money-makers: +5 (New +3, Bri +1, MC +1, Tot 0)
    • Games Remaining: 4
  • Total: +1

Arsenal

  • 17 Home Wins: -4 (Tot -2, Ful -2)
  • 2 Home Draws: +2 (MC +2)
  • 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -2 (Chel -2)
  • 8 money-makers: 0 (New 0, WHU 0)
    • Games Remaining: 6
  • Total: -4

Newcastle

  • 17 Home Wins: -3 (Liv -3)
  • 2 Home Draws: +2 (Arse)
  • 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -5 (Bourn -3, Wol -2)
  • 8 money-makers: +1 (WHU +1, BHA 0, MC 0)
    • Games Remaining: 5
  • Total: -5

Man United

  • 17 Home Wins: -6 (CP -3, BHA -3)
  • 2 Home Draws: -1 (MC -1)
  • 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -0-
  • 8 money-makers: -0- (Tot 0)
    • Games Remaining: 7
  • Total: -7

Tottenham

  • 17 Home Wins: -6 (AV -3, -3 Chel)
  • 2 Home Draws: -NA-
  • 11 away Wins vs Bottom 11: -5 IWol -3, Brent -2)
  • 8 money-makers: +1 (Arse +1)
    • Games Remaining: 7
  • Total: -10

So, is there anything we can see from breaking down a third of the season like this?

  • Everyone knows that strong home form is important, but it looks absolutely crucial for an 86-point-plus season. There are a lot of points to drop there, and United and Spurs will have to do something special to pull back the points they’ve already lost at home.
    • Corollary: Nobody gets an attaboy for beating Bournmouth, or Palace, or anybody in the bottom half of the table, home or away. If you’re banking on 86-plus, those are games you just need to win.
  • In this model, the City-Liverpool game only caused a one-point swing, since it’s not an expected win for City. Take a point, get out, and pick up points in easier games down the line. This idea doesn’t hold if you think you need 96 points to win the league, but 86 gives you a lot more room for sanity.
  • Against a top-tier rival, road draws look like a stronger result than most people give them credit for. Arse 1-1 Spurs was a net three-point swing for Spurs because, derby aside, it’s a game Arsenal should have won.
    • Corollary #2: If Chelsea stay in 10th (thus a bottom-11 team), their initials are going to be all over this thing. But their draws have hurt other teams more than they have helped Chelsea.
  • United and Spurs actually have a ton of points they could pick up, having only played one money-maker game each. That means they’ve had a very weak schedule so far, but it means there a lot of points still on the table, if they can find/regain form.
    • Corollary #3: You don’t get any bonus points for getting fat off the bottom of the table.

My questions at this point are:

  • Does this make sense?
  • Does it provide any value as a new way to look at what different strata of games mean, in terms of where your points end up at the end of the season?
  • And, most importantly, did I screw up any of the simple math?