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Lakers
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Clippers
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Warriors
3 (tie). TWolves
3 (tie). Suns
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Nuggets
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Grizzlies
Expectations are high all over the West, even for a few teams I don’t even project to crack the top seven. A few teams are going to be terribly disappointed come April, and that could have some serious ramifications for the next offseason.
In the meantime, get your popcorn and appreciate the race we might have. It projects to be close enough for the gods of randomness to have a field day. It’s theoretically possible we have 11 teams tied at 44-37 on the last day of the season.
More probably, factors like injuries, shooting variance and unexpected breakout years tilt the playing field in favor of a few teams and away from some others. Nonetheless, the margins among the top seven in particular project to be razor-thin, portending both a regular-season chase for seeds and home-court advantage that could go to the final day of the season, and another topsy-turvy postseason with little to distinguish “favorites” from underdogs.
I’m not picking a seven-way tie, although I was tempted, because I do see at least some small margin between first and seventh in the regular season. But with only five games separating these teams in my projected standings, the capriciousness of random variance could easily offset any difference
Wolves at third is hilarious
Alas, the Warriors lack large expiring contracts to help grease a trade, unless they’re willing to discuss moving Thompson … the type of thing they probably should be open to if we’re being coldly logical, but is a tough emotional hill for an organization to climb.
Chris Paul is making $31 million and is non-guaranteed for next year.
Hollinger has been saying that the Warriors lack the star power to win championships since like 2020, it’s hardly surprising he’s suggesting this.
Is he expecting Jaren to become a top 10 player? there’s no other reason to put Grizzlies that high.
They’ve been #2 the past 2 seasons…Ja Morant has missed an average of 23 games both seasons. There IS reason to put them that high.
We finished 2 games behind the Nuggets despite having all starters missing significant time other than Dillon. Adams(40) Bane(24) Ja(21) JJJ(19). Memphis players should be better as most of them have yet to hit their prime
Some notes:
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Nugs not at the top is just silly. I like the Grizz, I do, but no Morant for 25 games is already handicapping them in a competitive West.
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Lakers went to the Conference Finals last year and are objectively more talented. You can make the injury argument all you want, but their team was worse last year, got injured a lot, and still made the Conference Finals.
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I feel like spots 2-10 are an 8-sided dice roll
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My understanding was that the current general consensus is the Lakers, healthy, are built better than the Clippers, healthy.
If this is is the case, the only excuse for the Clippers being higher is expectation of injuries… which should be MUCH more damning towards the Clippers than the Lakers.
The media refuses to just give up on the Clippers for some reason
I love it. Give Hollinger credit for going outside the box.
I will say this—as I posted a few weeks ago, I think the Grizzlies are gonna be more than fine without Ja—I see them winning 15 games minimum without Ja. I see 15-10 at least. With Ja, this can be a 55-58 win team.
The Grizz starting five without Ja seems to be Smart-Bane-Kennard-Jackson Jr.-Adams. That is going to win a ton of games. If they go with Ziaire in the starting 5 who has been impressive in preseason, Luke and DRose make for a really fun bench pair. The Grizzlies are gonna be great. They’re also younger than most of the top West teams so health should be less of a red flag, although it isn’t a non-issue…Jackson/Smart/Adams are guys to watch on that front. If healthy the Grizz are a big problem.