Week 13 Flex Projections
Week 12 Recap
Mean Absolute Error
- Top 100 = 5.2
- RB = 5
- WR = 5.8
- TE = 3.9
Decision Success Rate = Week 12(Seas. Avg.) vs Week 12 Popular Ranker
- Top 100 = 67% (66.25%) vs. 65%
- Flex Range = 63% (66%) vs. 64%
Week 13 Projections
We’re getting close to the end of the season and I’m starting to think Top 100/Flex sub 4 MAE isn’t going to happen. The only place we’ve seen it is in the TE position and that’s not surprising as it is the least volatile position and only 8-14~ of them make it into the top 100 any given week. The biggest issue is accounting for the crazy blow up games, I can have Ceedee Lamb as my number 1 overall player, projected for 4 more points than consensus and when he scores 35 it still ruins the MAE. That isn’t necessarily an issue, just good context when trying to gauge how accurate any projections are. Results have been stable, the process is stable and at this point every week is just watching for outliers/extreme trends when the new week is accounted for. Week 12 was a test run of using a coverage matrix from FantasyPoints.com for the WR match up variable and I decided to switch back to their WR/CB match ups instead. I normally would not give something only one week, but after the fact I decided the logic behind using it was flawed and WR/CB match ups still suited the task better. Below is a table that gives a quick and simplified illustration of what goes into the weekly projections. The image shows all .5/1 PPR projections sorted by .5 PPR and the website has a range plot illustrating how much of a players projections is from their projected TD chance. As always, thank you for checking out the projections and feel free to ask questions or leave a comment or criticism. Good luck this week!
Weekly input to baseline projections by position
| Match up | Weather | Implied Team Totals | Spread/Game Script | Touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Neutral game script opponent Adj. YPC | None | Yes, TD chance | Yes, carries and receptions in games with large spreads | RZ Designed Carries, RZ Routes run |
| WR | WR CB match up based on Fantasypoints.com | Yes, aDOT and Rec’s based on Rotogrinders Weather | Yes, TD chance | Yes, receptions in games with large spreads | RZ 1st Read Tgts, 1st Read Tgts with 20+ AY |
| TE | Opponent Adj. Fpts vs. Slot/Inline/Wide | None | Yes, TD chance | None | RZ 1st Read Tgts |
Week 13 Flex Projection Range Plot
***********************************************
You must log in or register to comment.
This post is an automated archive from a submission made on /r/fantasyfootball, powered by Fediverser software running on alien.top. Responses to this submission will not be seen by the original author until they claim ownership of their alien.top account. Please consider reaching out to them let them know about this post and help them migrate to Lemmy.
Lemmy users: you are still very much encouraged to participate in the discussion. There are still many other subscribers on !fantasyfootball@nfl.community that can benefit from your contribution and join in the conversation.
Reddit users: you can also join the fediverse right away by getting by visiting https://portal.alien.top. If you are looking for a Reddit alternative made for and by an independent community, check out Fediverser.