Few things I want to achieve in this post
- Demonstrate that we can easily afford to re-sign the core of our team and run it back with new draft picks and even a FA or two
- Explain the thought process that the team is in a place where it can compete for a Super Bowl
- Have fun doing a little arm-chair GMing, sharing, and discussing to make up for the depression of the past week.
- I have been seeing a slight misconception on Twitter/Reddit that the Vikings absolutely cannot afford to re-sign everyone. This is simply not true. I have created a Google Document Here that shows all the moves and the cap implications. Note that I was using Spotrac, OverTheCap, and PFF as tools to find ballpark market evaluations, as well as cap structure. Apologies if for some reason OTC got somethign wrong when I was plugging everything in.
^The ^Big ^Moves:
| Player | AAV | $ Amount | Years | GTD | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB, Kirk Cousins | $40M/Yr | $120M | 3 Years (3 Void years) | $120M | Kirk was playing like an MVP with this improved offensive line-play. I truly think he showed that with a defense, with this line, with these weapons he is capable of winning against any team and a Super Bowl. I went with $40M/Yr to demonstrate even at this amount we can afford everyone back. Although in an ideal world, I would love a team-friendly contract for 2 Years, which may be possible if the Achilles hurts his market and in his older age is looking to win. |
| WR, Justin Jefferson | $35M/Yr | $175M | 5 Years | $120M | I used Nick Bosa’s record-breaking contract as somewhat of a guideline here. Jefferson would be making more than Bosa and would be the highest-paid receiver in the NFL. I could see him getting another couple million per year, and the Vikings could afford that, but would probably want to push the burden of that cap to the post-Kirk era. |
| EDGE, Danielle Hunter | $28M/Yr | $84M | 3 Years (1 Void Year) | $44M | I do think due to age and previous injury history Hunter will be getting slightly less than Bosa and I have him in-line with TJ Watt’s contract. However, like previously mentioned there is room to pay him more. Hunter is a crucial part of the defense, and I am sure Flores wants to be allowed to pay SOMEONE on the defense big bucks. |
| LG, Dalton Risner | $5M/Yr | $15M | 3 Years | 10M GTD | I do not think we can afford to bring Ezra Cleveland back, but I am hoping the Vikings can scoop up Risner for 2-3 years at 5-8M AAV. I think Risner showed he can start and play alongside Darrisaw as an above-average LG. |
| EDGE, Marcus Davenport | $7.5M | $15M | 2Yrs (1 Void year) | $10M | I know I may lose some of you here. However, I think due to Davenport’s insane injury history we can get him at a bargain. You will not be getting a player this talented for this price without some risk, I think the Vikings take the risk. However, you can easily swap out this contract for a DJ Wonnum extension + a below-average FA, or go after another FA. |
| DT, Grover Stewart | $10M | $10M | 1YR | $8M | Another player to take a risk on is Grover Stewart who is currently suspended for PEDs. I think we can get a Davenport-like contract for the big interior defensive lineman who will want to prove it was not the PEDs causing him to play so well. I think Stewart is agile enough to play alongside Phillips and would help bolster a smaller defensive front that can have trouble at times against the run. |
| LB, Jordan Hicks | $6M | $12M | 2Yrs | $6M | Hicks has been playing fantastic, and this may be a low-ball offer. The hope is Hicks at his age wants to win, sees us bringing back a great core and even adding, and is willing sign for a reasonable amount. This is $1M more AAV than he is currently on and he will be tied up until he turns 34 Years old. |
*Other notes in the doc include some cuts, picking up Darrisaw’s 5th-year option for 2025, and leaving Cap for signing all NFL picks. Note there is plenty of ways to make more space, like an O’Neil restructure, possibly cutting Byron Murphy, paying a pick to someone to take Alexander Mattison, etc.
Also there still would be some small signings to round out the roster, especially offensive line depth, I imagine that is when the Vikings would create some cap space, for those moves.
However, with all of those moves and still plenty of cap-opening restructures, cuts, and trades on the table we still would be going into 2024 under the cap probably $1-$2M, and have plenty of cap room in 2025 and beyond.
2.This team was one of the top teams in the NFL through 8 weeks. I know that statement seems homerish, but I truly am normally very pessimistic. I think when you look at how those games turned out, if the turnover ratio was even, this team had a very real chance of being 7-1 with the one loss actually being the 49ers where we benefitted greatly from turnovers. The Vikings shot themselves in the foot with fumbles, and that’s the key here. It was not Kirk having turnover-worthy throws or weird gimmicks, it was straight-up not holding onto the football and the ball not bouncing our way. We faced all three Super Bowl favorites in the Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers, and probably should have left 2-1 if the team held onto the ball.
The Vikings are 10th in Net EPA with the 7th hardest strength of schedule. Doing this while being 29th in turnover EPA, alongside a major injury to our most important player seems insane to me.
This is all while the team introduces a brand-new defense with a lot of young players getting better as the year went on.
Yes, that is not world-beating, but I think when you look at the schedule and you look at the caliber of other teams in the league right now, the Vikings can be a top contender.
3.The biggest factor will be hitting on our draft picks. I have a tab in the last row for 3 mock drafts that I did as some fun. However, the biggest thing in running it back would have to be a belief by Kwesi and KOC that they can hit on their picks, and if they have another draft like last year, there is a real chance this team is a top team right out of the gate.
TL:DR We can afford everyone and still make small additions, I think Lets run it back and win a Super Bowl.
-Note the Ezra/Dobbs trade happened after I wrote this up, don’t think it changed anything in here.
Honestly feel the same way. Run it back again and see where it takes us. Hopefully the draft class contributes and honestly we are golden.
Can either take a QB next year or the year after that.
Kirk is a good QB. Won’t find many QBs like him in the open market or draft.