Obviously the 49ers signing Young is a big move. Chase Young is a big name from the havoc that he wreaked at Ohio State, and is one of the best 2nd overall pick prospects in NFL history.

In what can be written off as pure copium, however, the move doesn’t scare me too much for the following reasons;

1. It’s Year 4 and he is still riding off of potential and a good rookie campaign

Young is a dominant athlete, around the level of your Myles Garrett’s and Nick Bosa’s. He proved this early in his career, but then after suffering some bad injuries over the following couple of years, this development has plateaued. From 2021-23, he has 6.5 sacks, 9 TFL and 14 QB hits over 19 games. For comparison, the much maligned Darrell Taylor’s current season would project to 6.8 sacks, 8 TFL and 8 QB hits if projected over the same amount of games. While he has been looking better recently, with 5 sacks, 6 TFL and 9 QB hits this year, the majority of this production have been coming against really subpar teams with subpar offensive lines. Between the games against the Giants, Bears and Broncos, Young has 4 sacks, 4 TFL and 7 QB hits - The vast majority of his production have been against bad teams, and when he plays good teams, he barely shows up on the stat sheet.

2. Washington was a great place to be a great EDGE player

Unfortunately this is something which does apply to SF as much as it does to Washington, but having players like Allen and Payne in the middle of your defensive line makes an edge rusher’s job so much easier. The QB has fewer opportunities to step up in the pocket, giving the edge players a better angle to attack. This would inflate his stats. He was also the 2nd best edge rusher on his team, behind Sweat. While it would be easy to imagine him entering into a situation in SF where he gets to play an easier role, his role is honestly fairly identical to what it was in Washington. He is the number 2 edge rusher, who is helped out by a strong interior. He is able to show out against bad teams, but that’s really it.

3. The 49ers current playbook of ‘Make our defense elite by picking up castaway edge players from other teams’ hasn’t worked this year

Clelin Ferrell, Randy Gregory, now Chase Young. Players who have a lot of potential, but haven’t really unlocked it. Many 49ers fans are calling for the head of Steve Wilks because he hasn’t been able to produce with two very similar (but admittedly inferior) players to Young, and now people expect him to get an extra gear out of Young? I just don’t really see it.

4. It doesn’t really help the 49ers future

After this year the 49ers have one, maybe two years left before Purdy’s contract kills their roster flexibility. They can still potentially bring big names in, but they aren’t doing Bosa many favours for the future. Unless they invest heavily in edge now that they have 1st round draft picks again, they are left with a bunch of guys on prove-it contracts who could (and in the case of Young, likely will) just leave next year, and their only real investment in the position in 2022 2nd rounder Drake Johnson is having much needed snaps taken away from him. Obviously Young is a better player than Johnson at this stage, but Johnson will be in the bay area until 2025 at least. The 49ers have a Super Bowl window open at least until Purdy has to get paid, and not trying to maximise one of your few recent high-end investments in the draft seems short-sighted to me.

5. He will be gone next year, and probably won’t get the 49ers a 3rd round comp pick

Players need to be signed on to massive contracts to get 3rd round comp picks these days. Marcus Davenport, who has had a similar career with greater success than Young signed a $13M contract with the Vikings, and he is only likely to net the Saints a 5th rounder. Unless Young finishes the year flashing something brilliant, its hard to see him get a much bigger contract than Davenport. His injury history will scare people off, and he will be given a one year prove it deal, unless he finishes the year with double digit sacks and a Pro Bowl nod. Possible, but given his pre-existing production, probably unlikely.

6. If Abe Lucas comes back, Young doesn’t scare me any more than their existing rushers already do

Obviously the injury bug can hit at any time, but the combo of Forscythe and Cross is really getting it done now. Upgrade Stone to Lucas, and suddenly I am not as afraid of what Young can do as opposed to any other non-Bosa 49ers edge rusher. He is obviously an upgrade, but I think I would fear what the 49ers had now, plus a 2024 3rd rounder next year, as opposed to the 49ers with Young, plus a 2025 5th rounder. At the end of the day, you can only put 11 men on the field, and I don’t see the upgrade of Young being that significant.

Now with me posting this, I fully anticipate Young will end the year with like 15 sacks, including 4 against us, but I don’t know. I just am not super frightened by this move, and think it pales considerably to our own move of getting Williams.