Although we’ve literally only seen the teaser, and have essentially nothing to go on, I think that using past precedent and some intuition we can actually make a pretty good guess at the Civs that’ll be in the base game. Leaders are a bit more of a stretch, but for fun I’ll take a stab at who I think it’ll be and suggest some alternatives that could be interesting.

I think these are the Civs that will be in the base game. I suspect based on the last couple of games we’ll get about 15-20, here are 18 to start with:

• Rome
• Greece
• Egypt
• China
• Japan
• India
• America
• England
• France
• Germany
• Russia
• Spain
• Arabia
• A Native American Civ
• A Sub-Saharan Civ
• A DLC Civ from Civ 6 people liked
• An ancient Civ not listed above
• At least one completely new Civ

The italicised Civs are IMO 100% guaranteed, the rest I think are highly likely.

For leaders, I think its important to remember a couple things:

1. For the base game, its important for gameplay that Civs/leaders have bonuses that benefit specific mechanics and play styles. You want them to be good at certain things so people can explore playing the game in different ways. Obviously we have no idea of new mechanics but we know broadly the old ones, and we can think of this theming when thinking about likely leaders
2. Controversial leaders are unlikely to be picked. i.e Mao isn’t going to lead China
3. They’ll be aiming for a balance of men vs women, so any Civ with obvious female leaders is likely to get them.
4. I’m just assuming one leader per Civ for argument’s sake

So with that said, here are some guesses:

Rome

Rome is a starter civ, and Sid Meier himself said he always starts playing with Rome. Therefore Rome is likely to have simple bonuses that help general play. My guess is we get Augustus, but Rome is arguably a civ where the leader isn’t that important

Greece

Greece could go a couple of ways depending on what mechanics they wany Greece to play into. I genuinely don’t know who it’ll be so interested to hear what others think

Egypt

Egypt is an easy place to add a woman, but instead of Cleo I think they might pick Hatshepsut. She would make sense as a wonder focused leader

China

Like Greece, China can go multiple ways so is hard to predict. I don’t have a clear idea

Japan

Japan has some logical picks like Tokugawa, but I wonder if they pick Meiji and be a bit more interesting with new mechanics or industrialisation

India

Gandhi. its just tradition at this point

America

In Civ V America had big benefits to scouting and buying land, and if they go there again Thomas Jefferson is the obvious choice, and a leader that hasn’t been used before

England

England is another place where the best options are women. Churchill is too controversial, and Victoria & Elizabeth have literal ages named after them at key points in British history (that you’d theme England around). I’d assume Elizabeth because we had Victoria in base Civ 6.

France

France is either Napoleon or someone from the 17th century. Louis XVI, or Richelieu could be fun. Personally I think it’ll be Napoleon, but just imagine if they picked Charlemagne… the rest of my picks are lacking medieval leaders

Germany

Bismark is the obvious boring pick. An alternative is Frederick the Great of Prussia. Some nice combat bonuses

Russia

Catherine the Great is an easy woman pick and wasn’t in the last game. my alternatives though are Alexander I (fought Napoleon, could have a combat bonus in own territory) and Ivan the Terrible (first Tsar of Russia, could have Oprichniki as a UU)

Spain

My guess here is Charles V, as a leader that hasn’t been used but represents Spain at its height, though Isabella is also a choice for a woman

Arabia

Muhammed (peace be upon him) unfortunately cannot be depicted in a video game, so we’re left with sad choices like Saladin. It definitely won’t be Saladin but honestly my knowledge of Arab history is poor so I don’t have a good suggestion

A Native American Civ

This is a pretty open category. It needs to be included for game balance but there are so many options. Total stab in the dark but Tecumsah could be interesting, or Powhatan. It could also be a central or southern American Civ

A Sub-Saharan Civ

Again this is a very open category, I wouldn’t want to make a guess as its not a part of history I’m deeply familiar with.

A DLC Civ from Civ 6 people liked

On pure gut instinct I think they add Australia back in, led by John Curtin. But they’ll bring someone back who was new in Civ 6. Tamar or Dido could be options too

An ancient Civ not listed above

Again this is broad, maybe Boudicca again, maybe the Hittites or Babylon. It’ll be someone for the early game that isn’t just Rome

At least one completely new Civ
The broadest category of all… Other than ones listed above I think Tibet could be fun, someone with mountain bonuses. Maybe Ranavalona I can lead Malagasy (Madagascar). I think there will be at least one curve ball pick anyway