We’re easing into the time of year where it may make sense to look ahead towards at the playoff schedule for individual players. Tyreek Hill is WR1 on the season (0.5 PPR), and has only had 2 “down” weeks. However, his playoff schedule is an absolute gauntlet:
Week 15 - Jets
Week 16 - Dallas
Week 17 - @ Baltimore
Before anyone says it, no, I am not suggesting that you bench Tyreek Hill if he’s on your roster, but I’m also not going to pretend this isn’t a little concerning. The Ravens and the Cowboys are viewed as top 3 defenses almost anywhere you look, and the Jets are generally in the top 10.
Specifically looking at the Cowboys and Ravens, here is how a “clear WR1” performed each week against those defenses.
| Cowboys Opponent By Week | 0.5 PPR Score |
|---|---|
| Week 1 (Giants - N/A) | N/A |
| Week 2 (Jets - Wilson | 15.3 |
| Week 3 (Cardinals - Brown) | 14.6 |
| Week 4 (Pats - N/A) | N/A |
| Week 5 (49ers - Samuel) | 7 |
| Week 6 (BYE) | BYE |
| Week 7 (Chargers - Allen) | 18 |
| Week 8 (Rams - Cupp) | 4.1 |
| Week 9 (Eagles - Brown) | 16.1 |
| Average (n = 6) | 12.5 |
You may argue that the Cowboys numbers are inflated based off leaving out some of their worse competition, but I honestly didn’t know who’s stats to pull for the Giants and Pats games.
| Ravens Opponent By Week | 0.5 PPR Score |
|---|---|
| Week 1 (Texans - Collins) | 11 |
| Week 2 (Bengals - Chase) | 5.6 |
| Week 3 (Colts - Pittman) | 12.2 |
| Week 4 ( Browns - Cooper) | 2.1 |
| Week 5 (Steelers - Pickens) | 22 |
| Week 6 (Titans - Hopkins) | 2.5 |
| Week 7 (Lions - St. Brown) | 16.7 |
| Week 8 (Cardinals - Brown) | 12.9 |
| Week 9 (Seahawks - Metcalf) | 5.5 |
| Average (n = 9) | 10.1 |
Note: Johnson was out when the Ravens played the Steelers. Pickens had a field day, surprisingly.
Is there anything to be done with this information? Who knows - your guess is as good as mine! If you’re pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs at this point (and if you drafted Hill, you may well be), should you look to sell (ridiculously) high? Probably not! That said, I saw this and thought to myself “huh, well that’s less than ideal,” and decided to look into it further. All in all, I think it’s definitely something to consider as we inch closer to the trade deadline and the end of the season.
I’d put Tyreek on or above Allen and Brown’s respective levels, and they turned in perfectly fine numbers for half-PPR.
If you’re saying the explosive 200-yd 2-TD ceiling might be taken away, sure. But how often are you getting that from even the elite players anyway?
You could try and negotiate something with the Diggs manager as his last 2 weeks of the fantasy playoffs have great matchups, but you have to deal with Dallas in Week 15 if you’re playing to clinch/advance / don’t have the bye.