Introduction

Hello,

We are halfway through the 2023 NFL season, and I wanted to do a quick look into some metrics pertaining to the QB position.

The two main ones are Completed Air Yards (“CAY”) and Success Rate (“Succ%”)

Completed Air Yards are the amount of yards traveled past the line of scrimmage minus Yards After Catch. Success Rate measures if a play gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down.

I decided to look at CAY because it controls for Yards After Catch, and may be more indicative of a QB’s passing abilities. For instance, if a QB throws a slant for 5 yards, but it goes for a 50 yard TD, that was less a consequence of the QB and more a consequence of the receiver and blocking by teammates. Granted, football is a team sport, and even just looking at that is not a comprehensive look at the greatness of a QB; however, that coupled with Succ% gives some insight I think.

Again, not comprehensive, and that is not really what I am trying to go for anyway, but this is more so just to share some interesting findings.

Methodology

All data was taken from Pro Football Reference. I only chose QBs with a minimum of 97 pass attempts. The different metrics I looked at include CAY, CAY/PA, CAY/Cmp, and Succ%.

After copying all the data, I found the Z-score for each individual and their corresponding metric. Then, I did a two-tail test to see which Z-scores were statistically significant. I set alpha to 0.05.

Findings

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Table 1

The table above is the dataset pertaining to each individual QB with their corresponding metrics.

Table 2

This table shows the Z-scores for each individual QB and their corresponding metric. The areas highlighted in green are Z-scores that were determined to be statistically significant.

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Table 3

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Table 4

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Table 5

Tables 3-5 just show the graph version of the datasets from tables 1 and 2.

Z-Score Discussion

The only areas that were found to be statistically significant were the following:

P.J. Walker - CAY (lower end of distribution)

P.J. Walker - CAY/PA (lower end of distribution)

Joe Burrow - CAY/Cmp (lower end of distribution)

Brock Purdy - CAY/PA (upper end of distribution)

Brock Purdy - Succ% (upper end of distribution)

Matthew Stafford - CAY/Cmp (upper end of distribution)

The higher the success rate, obviously the better, and with Purdy his success rate is statistically significant. Some QB’s that are close to the upper end (but for whom we would not reject the null hypothesis for) in terms of success rate only really include Allen, Tua, and Goff. On the lower end, Watson, Walker, Wilson and Jones are close, but again, do not cross that critical value of -1.959964.

Limitations

This is not all-encompassing. As far as assessing the QBs, Completed Air Yards and success rate are only part of the equation. There are non-football stat related things to keep in mind, such as personality, experience, age, teammates, and coaches. Taking those into account can help explain why the data is the way it is.

Additionally, a QB can make a great play not through the air. They could very well rush for a big gain or even a TD. This analysis only views the QB position through the prism of passing.

Conclusion

Overall, I think this is interesting, but incomplete. Further inquiry can be made to give a more comprehensive view of the QB position. However, with the metrics we are examining here, I think it is a decent start. Another analysis of this, with more metrics and at the end of the season, would probably be more insightful.

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  • PsychologicalGuest97OPBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    Additionally, while saying YAC is largely a function of receiver play and good blocking may have some truth to it, so does CAY. A receiver like Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill who can reliably gain separation deep will inflate a CAY just like how a receiver like AJ Brown or Deebo Samuel can inflate YAC.

    I see what you mean, and maybe you’re right, but idk if CAY would be inflated to the same extent. A screen pass is sometimes thrown behind the line of scrimmage which means the CAY is 0, but the passing yards (and YAC) could go for many yards. Idk if that’s a useful way of looking at how well a QB throws the football. Not to say it isn’t useful at all, it obviously can increase a teams EPA/Play or per dropback for the QB.

    Offensive line pass blocking skill also systematically biases CAY values. Poor pass blocking lines or average lines who have to face formidable defensive lines will necessarily have game plans to neutralize this issue. You will see a lot of slide protections and screens, which is a choice made somewhat independent of QB skill

    Thanks, forgot to list this as one of the limitations at the end. I remember thinking that after I listed “coach”.

    These analyses are interesting, however I would caution using these numbers as a way to rank QBs against each other when there is this amount of noise in the data. This is a theme true for many football statistics, not just CAY.

    Yeah, and like I mentioned, this is only part of the equation. A more comprehensive look can (and should) be taken into consideration down the line, probably at the end of the season when there is a larger sample size.