LCK Caster Kangqui's analysis on NRG vs WBG Pick and Ban

NRG vs WBG Pick and Ban analysis by Kangqui translated by me

https://youtu.be/CvyVvTn3sqQ?si=6s17XEpIfWivqXEv&t=695

#Introduction

So because this is a 3:0 there isn’t too much to talk about but I do want to talk about Thinkcard(NRG coach)'s mindset and the story he is trying to tell via pick/ban.

So on Nov 2nd, the ship of LCS has officially sunk. Unsure whether they were pushed off or they jumped out on their own term but let’s look at the pick and ban.

The prediction of this series were roughly 50/50. The prediction wasn’t easy this series. Why isn’t it easy? If you look at the series from afar you see TheShy, WeiWei, Xiaohu, Crisp omg how are NRG going to win against them? Like wow the talent depth of LPL wow. But anyone who saw LPL would know WBG did not come here very confidently. The consistency of the team was a problem.

So some thought maybe the NRG that caught G2 have a chance?

But it is hard to believe in NRG. Because first of all, they’re from NA. Oh how about WBG? Oh they’re hard to trust too.

So it was hard to predict how the series was going to go

#Game 1

So in game 1 NRG banned Renata, Azir, and Rumble. WBG banned Xayah, Jarvan, and Maokai.

Maokai and Xayah are strong pick so WBG didn’t want NRG to have them. Also Contractz was good on Jarvan so let’s ban that too. So WBG basically banned NRG’s strong pick basically saying we are better than you so let’s just remove some of your highs.

As for NRG’s ban it might not make sense for now but as the series goes on you will understand why.

Okay then first of all Oriana is a high tier champion so let’s pick her up first. Then WBG responded with Aphelios and Rell. So Aphelios do well against Kaisa because her range is small so it’s doable. As for Rell, she can swap to other lane. A lot of coaches love picks that can flex to other role. It feels great knowing you can still change lane at later stage of the pick/ban. So let’s pick Rell and think about it later.

Then NRG are like well we are good at Senna Tahm so let’s do that. So they’re picking what they’re good at.

So here WBG could pick another support, especially since NRG already reveal their bot lane. But what you have to understand is that sometimes when Xiaohu(WBG’s midlane) goes to 4/5th pick it could get a bit… anxious? So instead of going there let’s just pick Xiaohu’s champ now.

Then Jax, Vi ban from WBG and Noct, Gnar ban from NRG.

Because Aphelios is picked the value of Vi goes up so WBG banned her. Whenever Zeri or Apehlios is picked the value of Vi goes up.

As for Noct ban(by NRG) it is because Noct/Neeko combo are scary.

For Jax ban(by WBG) it makes Gnar better. TheShy wants to go carry vs carry since it is a matchup he excels at.

So now since Gnar is a good pick NRG banned Gnar to protect Dholka.

WBG responded by picking Ksante. But this was okay from NRG since unless something happens Renetkon vs Ksante is very doable.

So we have a fairly even top lane now NRG picked Viego which is a bit scary. I think Wukong here would be good for NRG. So I think if you look at the result you might think Wukong is good but I think NRG was scared something might happen so they picked Viego to protect their lanes.

Now here is the weakpoint proc of the game. WBG picked Milo. Whenever Aphelios is picked you automatically think Lulu. it’s not that Milo is never picked with Aphelios. It is not nobody thought to pair Aphelios with Milo. But here you feel like Lulu is coming. So from the perspective of Ori, Senna/Tahm(NRG) lulu is easy because of her short range so it is easy for Ori to control them. But now Milo is here so Aphelios has the range to go against Ori. The one champion that can catch Milo is Wukong. But if NRG picked Wukong would Lulu come out?

Even though this Milo pick was great it was still doable for NRG.

but Palafox the man who was once known as Palafaker… To be fair, this was a difficult game for Ori even though you have Tahm Senna. But if you were able to do it the game was winnable but ultimately he wasn’t able to so they lost the game.

So after this game I predicted a 3:1 because both sides got a not bad draft. And usually first game is the most prepared out of all the games. So I thought the series was doable. But because they lost the game… Well, let’s talk about it more next game.

But anyway, the fight over 4th/5th pick was the fun part of this game. The tier raising of Gnar forcing the ban of Gnar which prevents any support ban from NRG. Maybe a support ban here would be good for NRG? Like how Dylan Falco banned Rakan last time but anyway, WBG got a good support pick and won the game.

#Game 2

So here NRG’s ban were the same(Azir, Renata, Rumble) So here you might not understand why NRG banned these champions but it will be clear at Game 3. WBG won game 1 so there is no reason to change up their ban so theirs remain the same as well.

But here is the first change from NRG. To be honest the first game 1 was hard for Oriana so let’s make her job easier. So they grabbed Ksante and Vi(along with Oriana). So here is something interesting. After NRG picked Ksante if WBG picked Gnar it could be really bad for NRG. But remember what I said in game 1? Xiaohu must get pick in the first stage. Of course this wasn’t always the case maybe it wasn’t case from Spring to Summer but right now it is absolutely the case. So Mr.Daeny(WBG’s head coach) said hey Xiaohu go now.

So NRG picked Oriana, Vi, Ksante and WBG picked Aphelios, Rell, Neeko. So here both look good.

Then NRG is like yeah we can’t give them Gnar so Gnar is banned. Then WBG thought hey you guys are bad at anything but Senna/Tahm so let’s ban Senna. WBG’s ban are all ban of the strong as in they ban thinking they are better than the other team. If you can’t surprise you can’t win that’s WBG’s mindset.

So NRG banned Viego WeiWei is good with Viego so maybe they’re scared of him? Also their first stage picks aren’t good against Viego so I guess it make sense. It is kind of hard to play Rell jungle against the current comp of NRG so I think NRG thought WBG is going to flex it to support.

Then WBG picked Aatrox.

So here NRG is puzzled. We banned Rumble in first ban phase, we picked Ksante early, we even give another ban to top but here WBG somehow still got a okay pick? So now here Thinkcard(NRG’s coach) thought oh we invested so much on top but we didn’t get much in return we can’t go this way anymore. Of course you can’t say this out loud because it means you already lost but you can think about it. Ahh let’s change it next game.

But tbh Aatrox pick is okay. It is a pick that sometime work sometime doesn’t work and even in time where he should work sometime he doesn’t. So here WBG’s comp can’t really initiate easily. So NRG grabbed Kaisa/Alistar and NRG can basically fight whenever they want. If they do this how can Aatrox catchup? To be honest Aatrox can’t really catchup in a high tempo game.

Now NRG are super happy because they have Alistar that counter Rell and Neeko. And even if they picked Aphelios/Lulu Oriana can deal with them easy. So here we all expect Lulu to be picked here because all the champions of NRG wants to go in and Lulu is good at defending that.

Then Daeney is like WAIT WAIT WAIT. Crisp’s lulu winrate isn’t even at 50%? But it is over 50% on Milo? Like we are the better team do we need to match our opponent? Let’s just pick what we are good at.

Here unlike Game 1 this isn’t the fight of range. Here the extended range doesn’t really matter that much so Milo isn’t as good as he was in Game 1. But then Daeney galaxy brained and realized League is played by people not computers so he gave Milo to Crisp.

To be honest this part doesn’t really matter that much. Anyone who watched the game would know the game will probably end the same way if they picked Lulu.

#Why Alistar pick

So here people might ask Why Kaisa pick why Alistar pick. Alistar’s winrate isn’t high and I personally have said I don’t like him being picked. Even though he isn’t good at game like this he has to come out. Alistar counter Neeko and Rell , pairs well with Kaisa and can pressure enemy support. This is the time Alistar have to come out. But because they lost people ask why they picked useless Alistar.

So here we have a couple takeaway points.

We finally have enough information to decipher NRG’s ban
and We know Thinkcard knows that investing in toplane isn’t worth it.

So how he will adapt?

#Game 3

So first ban of all, NRG freed Rumble and first picked him. Because instead of investing multiple bans on top lane it is better to just pick Rumble and be happy with it. Okay Dhokla’s rumble might not be that good but the alternative is too costly.

Second, Why did NRG ban Renata all three games? Here is where the result is revealed. So player Ignar(NRG’s support) anyone who follow him would know what Ignar position means. It means Blitz, Alistar catching enemy backline off guard. He likes playing tank support, he likes to flank. Instead of pilling his own team he likes to peel off enemy’s back. So Ignar has the image of not playing enchanter. And this image is true. So if you want to play tank support you can’t have Renata open. That’s why Renata is banned.

Third, Azir ban. Xiaohu is good at the champion and the champion is quite good at the time. So maybe NRG was scared of him.

Now that we explained NRG’s ban let’s move on.

WBG picked Maokai and Cait. Wow this means we have solid map control let’s roll the lane over. Get lane priority and move to control objective before they can. Very reminiscent of last year’s World.

Then NRG was like wow Cait let’s pick Ezrael/Karma and beat them in lane. Obviously, for you who have already seen the future we know it didn’t work but for now it looks good. Rumble, Ezreal/Karma goes well together, have lane priority, and their two item power spike would be insane. Of course if WBG picked tanks then Ezreal might have a tough time so maybe we need to watch for that.

Then WBG went into a deep thought. It looks like Crisp wanted Lux but since Lux doesn’t fare well against Karma so they pull out the dinger. Heimerdinger is not a pick that win against karma. It’s a pick that lose a little bit. But his grenade could turn a trade around. This isn’t great for WBG in fact it is a great pick for NRG because this mean at least two lane, top and bot, have prioty.

So Contractz were good with Jarvan so let’s not let them have it. WBG’s comp goes in slowly so we have to ban strong engage Jarvan.

Now here is a regret ban. Do NRG really need to ban Ksante? If Rumble just want to shove and roam then Ksante isn’t really a issue… Oh wait nvm Ezreal can’t deal with Ksante. The Ksante ban isn’t for Rumble it’s for Ezreal. Nvm the fourth ban is good. Thinkcard I knew you wouldn’t misstep. The Ksante ban is very good thinking from Thinkcard.

Then WBG banned Poppy it seems they were scared of bot lane snowballing. They were scared Ezreal/Karma would dive with Poppy.

Then NRG banned Trist to be honest I don’t quite understand this one maybe they were scared of Maokai/Trist duo?

Then WBG picked up Gnar and Gnar are pretty good against Rumble of course in game Rumble were actually winning.

Then NRG picked up Yone/Sejuani. Here WBG could’ve picked Syndra. It’s good AD/AP balance and also because WBG’s comp are good at vision control it is good for Syndra to throw out stuns. And Karma die if she get hit by Syndra’s combo.

But then NRG picked Yone/Sej and wow if we picked Syndra here she is going to cosplay yone in yasou x yone. But Xiaohu instead picked Jayce which isn’t way more mobile than Syndra but it is slightly better.

NRG’s Yone/Sej are great against Syndra and forcing WBG to pick Jayce is also not bad.

Let’s look at the draft. First we have Yone/Sej strong skirmish, Ezreal/Karma we always win lane, and to be honest Rumble vs Gnar isn’t that bad. And wow this isn’t too bad. Our brother Thinkcard managed to do 180 on draft it seems he came well prepared. To be honest this game’s draft was the best from Thinkcard.

But then let’s talk about WBG’s comp. So their comp is about maintaining control of the map. But if NRG is too strong they can’t even come out. And for a few minutes it was like this. But then Ignar forgot he is not playing Ignar champions and died at blue.

Contractz had to go bot. Of course he have to abandon his jungle and go help bot and make sure Maokai can’t even glance at bot. If he does this bot would make so much money from plates. If bot lane collapses his pension is gone too so of course he is going to come to the front door and open the taxi door for them. But then accident happened.

So it is okay to be slapped but it is not okay to be fisted. Ignar got fisted and Contractz’s pension is gone too. wtf I thought we are going to the moon?? Yes, I said someone is going to the moon but I didn’t say it’s us.

So NRG have to snowball first and gain control of the land but with this move all their land right are taken away by WBG. Around this time WBG’s comp’s synergy shines bright and well the game was over.

BUT as someone who watched the whole game I feel like even if the game went NRG’s plan they would still lost. Because I understand the motive of Thinkcard’s draft but I don’t think the players were able to pilot the picks. From the perspective of the coach there is nothing they can do because what they’re good at are all banned by WBG. So instead of playing what they are good at let’s play something a bit different.

This games feel like the players weren’t comfortable with the champions they picked. Whenever someone lose with the pick they weren’t comfortable with we always why they are picked in the first place. But we saw game 1 and game 2 we know that there is no answer there either. So… goodjob? Hey you came this far good job. And to be honest giving a try at the end wasn’t a bad idea.

Congrats to all the players too. To be honest coming here itself is a legendary task for NA. And they are a newly formed team too. They prepared Senna/Tahm and showed us many things. For people who had faith in NA might be disappointed in this series but good job you did well.

#WBG

As for WBG there is a couple takeaway point. Like you need to pick mid quick, like you can flex Rell, and Milo can be a good counter pick.

Honestly this Milo in Game 1 basically summed up the series. NRG’s comp centered around Oriana if the execution is a bit better they had a chance.

From our Korean perspective, this series might be nothing. NA lost oh what a surprise. But WBG came here very shakily. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they are disqualified at any stage. Now that they’re here… Maybe it’s like last year of course that was once a lifetime miracle. The probability it happening again is low but it kind of feel like it is coming.

I think WBG figured out what not to pick and ban. Instead of the team getting better it feels like the team understand themselves a bit better? XiaoHu’s form isn’t that great, TheShy sometime die at random point but now there isn’t many games left so if they perform well for that few games nothing else matters. All they have to do is not explode for 3 days out of 365 days. They already exploded once so hahah they just need last two more days.

This might sound funny but this is how sport works.