There has been a lot of talk about how this defense has cratered under Wilks’ leadership.

I wanted to take a look at how accurate that actually is.

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Standard Stats, to start it off

2022		2023
16.3	Points All	17.5
300.6	YPG All	315.0
5.0	Yd/Ply All	5.1
1.82	TotTD/Gm All	1.75
3.0%	TotTD/Ply	2.8%

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Pass defense

2022		2023
34.9	P.Att/Gm	39.0
65.6%	Cmp%	67.9%
3.40%	TD%	3.20%
3.40%	INT%	3.50%
11.1	PFD/Gm	11.4
31.7%	PFD/Att	29.2%
82.7	Pass Rat Vs	80.8
6.5	YPA Allowed	6.3
5.4	YAC/Cmp	4.2
21.6%	Blitz Rate	20.1%
22.9%	Pressure Rate	25.0%
6.9%	Sack Rate	5.5%

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Specifically, a look at the DBs;

2022		2023
63.8	T.Gipson	15.3
91.4	T.Hufanga	63.8
91.2	D.Lenoir	71.4
82.4	C.Ward	80.9
76.2	I.Oliver^(1)	105.5

^(1) played for ATL in 2022

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And for the DEs

2022		2023
	A.Armstead
350	DefSnaps	357
0.6%	QBHurry	1.1%
1.1%	QBKD	1.1%
1.7%	Press	3.1%
0.0%	Sck	0.7%
	D.Jackson
315	DefSnaps	199
0.6%	QBHurry	2.0%
0.6%	QBKD	0.5%
2.2%	Press	4.0%
1.0%	Sck	1.5%
	J.Hargrave
712	DefSnaps	334
0.28%	QBHurry	0.30%
0.7%	QBKD	0.9%
2.5%	Press	2.1%
1.5%	Sck	0.9%
	N.Bosa
746	DefSnaps	414
1.2%	QBHurry	1.7%
3.8%	QBKD	3.1%
7.5%	Press	5.8%
2.5%	Sck	0.7%

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First Downs & Conversions

2022		2023
17.1	FD/Gm	19.4
28.4%	FD/Ply	31.1%
39.0%	3rdDwn%	40.6%

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Turnovers

2022		2023
1.76	TO/Gm	1.63
2.92%	TO/Ply	2.61%
3.4%	INT%	3.5%
0.97%	FumbR/Pl	0.40%
15.3%	DriveTO%	15.7%

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Penalties

2022		2023
96	Pen	52
832	PenYd	436
8.7	Yd/Pen	8.4
5.6	Pen/Gm	6.5
48.9	PenYd/Gm	54.5
1.5	PEN 1D/Gm	2.1

​ Rushing Defense

2022		2023
22.9	R.Att/Gm	21.1
3.4	YPC	4.1
77.7	YPG	86.1
0.65	RTD/Gm	0.50
2.80%	RTD%	2.40%
4.5	RFD/Gm	5.9
19.8%	FD/R.Att	27.8%
77	TkFL	40
19.8%	TkFL%	23.7%
3.8	MissTk/Gm	4.0
8.2%	MissTkRat	8.4%

Advanced Stats

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2022		2023
-14.80%	DEF-DVOA	1.10%

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Wilks vs QBs

Now let’s look at specific games. There is this notion that Wilks has allowed certain QBs/teams to crush him, and a perception that it hasn’t happened to DeMeco Ryans.

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• Jarrett Stidham vs D.Ryans: 23/34, 365 yds, 10.7 YPA, 3 TDs, 2 INT, 108.1 Rat
• Kirk Cousins vs Steve Wilks: 35/45, 378 yds, 8.4 YPA 2 TD, 1 INT, 107.2 Rat
  • 60 yards & a TD which came when the WR ripped an INT out of the defenders hands. Hard to blame Wilks for that.
  • Without that a 34/45, 318, 7.1 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 92.6 Rat doesn’t look all that brilliant.

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• J.Burrow vs D.Ryans: 25/34, 348 yds, 10.2 YPA 2 TD, 125.6 Rat
• J.Burrow vs S.Wilks: 28/32, 283 yds, 8.8 YPA, 3 TD, 134.6 Rat

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One of the other arguments people give is the QBs faced

• 2023 good: M.Stafford, D.Prescott, K.Cousins, J.Burrow
• 2022 good: M.Stafford, M.Stafford G.Smith, G.Smith, P.Mahomes, Tua, Brady

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• 2023 bad: K.Pickett, D.Jones, J.Dobbs, PJ.Walker
• 2022 bad: Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, Colt McCoy, Trace McSorely, Andy Dalton, Jarrett Stidham, Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, David Blough

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Blame

Really, it seems like people are just looking for a scapegoat and Wilks makes for an easy target because he’s the newest guy in the building.

But when you look at the losses they could have easily swung to wins without a single change from Wilks.

• Cleveland
  • The Cleveland loss isn’t his fault.
  • The defense forced a 3&out and refs took complete phantom penalties and turned them into a go-ahead FG for Cleveland.
  • Even after that FG, the 49ers had a chance to win.
    • 49ers had 1st & 10 from the CLE 26 with 45 seconds (1 timeout) and chose to run the ball one time and let the clock drain.
    • Even if Kyle didn’t want to be aggressive and go for a TD, he could have called two more runs and gotten the ball closer, making it an easier kick.
    • And regardless of that, Moody had the chance to win the game.
• Minnesota
  • The 49ers had as much as 23 points go one way or the other that had nothing to do Wilks
    • 3 to 7 pts from CMC fumbling in the redzone
    • 3 pts from J.Moody missing a FG
    • 7 pts from a defender getting the ball ripped out of his hands and the WR running 60 yards the other way.
    • 3 from ^(1st) B.Purdy INT (while concussed) in FG range
    • 3 from ^(2nd) B.Purdy INT (while concussed) in FG range
  • Pick any combination of those things and one Jake Moody miss against Cleveland and the 49ers would be 7-1. Outside of the influence of Wilks.

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Simply blaming Wilks is making him into a scapegoat that doesn’t tell the full story.

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Just my own opinion here, the biggest difference with the pass defense is the lack of sacks. As you can see, the pressure rate is there. The low sack total is just a bit fluky. Given the similar pressure rates, the sack rates should also equalize over time.

Get more sacks and you create longer downs/distances, lower the already similar conversion rate.

While rushing defense is a problem, 1st & 2nd down sacks would help lower those 3rd down rates for rushing.

Do all that and drives end quicker, teams score less points.

Trickle down Sackonomics.