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Probabilistic Consensus through Ensemble Validation: A Framework for LLM Reliability
arxiv.orgLarge Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external knowledge or human oversight, limiting scalability. We introduce a novel framework that repurposes ensemble methods for content validation through model consensus. In tests across 78 complex cases requiring factual accuracy and causal consistency, our framework improved precision from 73.1% to 93.9% with two models (95% CI: 83.5%-97.9%) and to 95.6% with three models (95% CI: 85.2%-98.8%). Statistical analysis indicates strong inter-model agreement ($κ$ > 0.76) while preserving sufficient independence to catch errors through disagreement. We outline a clear pathway to further enhance precision with additional validators and refinements. Although the current approach is constrained by multiple-choice format requirements and processing latency, it offers immediate value for enabling reliable autonomous AI systems in critical applications.
Genuine question: how energy intensive is it to run a model compared to training it? I always thought once a model is trained it’s (comparatively) trivial to query?
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/09/18/energy-ai-use-electricity-water-data-centers/
How much energy does it take for the PC to be on and the user to type out that email manually?
I assume we will get to a point where energy required starts to reduce as the computing power increases with moores law. However, it’s awful for the environment in the mean time.
I don’t doub that rather than reducing energy, instead they will use more complex models requiring more power for these tasks for the foreseeable future. However eventually it will be diminishing returns on power and efficiency will be more profitable.
For the small ones, with GPUs a couple hundred watts when generating. For the large ones, somewhere between 10 to 100 times that.
With specialty hardware maybe 10x less.
A lot of the smaller LLMs don’t require GPU at all - they run just fine on a normal consumer CPU.
Wouldn’t running on a CPU (while possible) make it less energy efficient, though?
It depends. A lot of LLMs are memory-constrained. If you’re constantly thrashing the GPU memory it can be both slower and less efficient.
yeah but 10x slower, at speeds that just don’t work for many use cases. When you compare energy consumption per token, there isn’t much difference.
Good god. Thanks for the info.
Still requires thirsty datacenters that use megawatts of power to keep them online and fast for thousands of concurrent users