Here are the current three point shooting stats for each player.

Player 3PM/3PA 3P%
James 1.8/5.1 34.8%
Davis 0.4/0.9 42.9%
Russell 1.8/5.9 30.2%
Reaves 1.3/4.4 30%
Hachimura 1.2/3.0 40%
Prince 1.6/4.6 34%
Wood 1.2/2.8 44%
Vincent 0.3/3.5 7.1%
Reddish 0.8/2.7 29.2%

Assuming everyone is healthy, the team is 10.4/32.9 (31.6%), which is absolute dogshit.

But, there are several players who are below their usual numbers.

Austin Reaves

In the final 39 games last year (post ASB and playoffs), Reaves was 1.9/4.3 (44.3%). I seriously doubt he can shoot 44% from three again but the attempts per game seem consistent. A closer estimate would be 1.7/4.4 (38.6%)

D’Angelo Russell

In the final 33 games last year (post ASB and playoffs), Russell was 2.2/6.0 (36.7%). His playoff numbers were atrocious so it dragged down his average. The regular season numbers were really good though at 2.7/6.5 (41.4%). I also don’t expect him to shoot 41% but I think it’s fair to say that he’ll be above 36% especially since it’s just the regular season. A closer estimate would be 2.4/6.2 (38.7%)

Taurean Prince

His three point attempt per game is actually at its highest in 3 years. He’s getting a lot of looks especially with James and Davis on the floor. His percentage is a bit down but I expect him to be around 1.8/4.8 (37.5%)

Gabe Vincent

His start to the season shooting-wise is uglier than my toilet when I have food poisoning. His numbers will for sure even out but his past regular season numbers aren’t really that eye-popping as well. The only hope everyone is holding on to is his 2.2/5.0 (43.2%) from last year’s playoffs. His best regular shooting season was a 1.8/4.8 (36.8%) which was 2 years ago but I do expect him to be around those numbers this season. A closer estimate would be 1.5/4.1 (36.6%)

Cam Reddish

I think the X-Factor in our shooting is Cam Reddish. His defense will let him see minutes on the floor, he really just has to knock down the open corner threes LeBron gets him. Two years ago, he was 1.3/3.8 (35.9%); while last year was awful at 1.1/3.6 (31.3%). A similar player role-wise with similar-ish numbers was Troy Brown Jr. TBJ before he joined the Lakers was 0.7/2.0 (33.7%). When he was with the Lakers, he was 1.4/3.7 (38.1%). Do I expect Cam to shoot 38%? Hell no, but I do hope he improves since he’s gonna be open a lot and he’ll be working with Phil Handy. I guess 1.2/3.5 (34.3%) sounds reasonable.

Despite this, there are players who have been overachieving.

Rui Hachimura

He’s currently shooting 40% from three but in the final 49 games last year (post ASB and playoffs), Rui was 0.8/2.2 (36.3%). He’s currently attempting 3 threes per game which I think would stay, i just feel like the 40% is unsustainable. I see him going 1.1/3 (36.7%)

Christian Wood

Wood is currently on fire but i’m pretty sure he won’t maintain his 44%. His three point attempts are down from last year but that’s just because of usage. I can see him slightly bumping up his attempts as he gets more playing time though. I see him going 1.2/3.2 (37.5%)

Conclusion

Here’s the table again but with the estimates for the analyzed players.

Player 3PM/3PA 3P%
James 1.8/5.1 34.8%
Davis 0.4/0.9 42.9%
Russell 2.4/6.2 38.7%
Reaves 1.7/4.4 38.6%
Hachimura 1.1/3.0 36.7%
Prince 1.8/4.8 37.5%
Wood 1.2/3.2 37.5%
Vincent 1.5/4.1 36.6%
Reddish 1.2/3.5 34.3%

All this equates to 13.1/35.2 (37.2%). The 3PM is good for 9th in the league while the percentage is good for 10th in the league. Some players on the table would be injured at times so the actual numbers might be lower. Around 12.3/33.9 (36.3%) seems reasonable and that’s still 16th and 14th in the league respectively. This is still a lot better than the current 9.3/30.0 (31.1%) we have right now. Three additional threes a game is 9 points which is huge in deciding the outcome of the game.

tl;dr we should be a lot better once we get out of our current shooting slump

  • CoastalduelistsB
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    1 year ago

    Very solid post bro. I believe our shooting woe’s will work themself out. We have damn good players and they will figure it out. They’ve been at it for a while together now, it’s going to click. That’s why idk why most of the Lakers fans and people in the sub have been so hard on the team at the start of the season.

  • AR15_He_Is_HimB
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    1 year ago

    Good post. I’d probably lower AD and Vincent’s percentages a bit, but it won’t affect the numbers much.

    We’ll also have Vando taking a lot of minutes and attempts from Prince, Reddish, Rui at a lower percentage, but the point remains.