TL;DR - Gute inherited a shit situation and I don’t know what any GM would have done in his shoes, but the 2020/21 draft was clearly not it, and Dom Capers/Mike Pettine probably would’ve ruined TJ Watt anyway.

After seeing the “The 2020 Nightmare” post and numerous comments about how awful Gutey has been, and for some reason regurgitating the franchise’s decision to not draft TJ Watt as if hindsight has never been 20/20, you have to contextualize and unpack the string of events that Gute inherited, and where we are now.

End of 2016 - The Packers just finished running the table where Rodgers dragged that lifeless team to the playoffs, where Ladarius Gunter was forced into the impossible task of being CB1 and covering a prime Julio Jones. That alone should have been enough of a sign they were taking someone in the secondary, but they shouldn’t have had to. Why? The 2015 draft tried addressing the 2014 blunder, but Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall were awful, and they were letting Micah Hyde walk.

2017, and the nightmare begins - Now, I grew up on all things Wisconsin sports, so I will race to the front in wanting the Packers should take TJ Watt in the draft, strictly out of being a homer and how dominate he was his last year in college ball - but so was the entire Wisconsin defense. The problem is, that was his only real year of football, and not his original position. He was brought in as a TE, and converted to LB after coming back from a knee injury in 2014. He did not play in a game from 2012 through part of the 2015 season, so I did not expect him to actually go in the first round. I also never expected the Packers to go for anything more than depth at LB as they just drafted Jake Ryan in 2015, Blake Martinez and Kyler Fackrell in 2016, Clay Matthews was getting healed up, and Nick Perry was coming off a career year. Everyone remembers Rodgers’ injury, and Capers getting fired after the season, but not what Capers probably would have done with TJ Watt, or that everyone from the 2015 draft was gone at the end of the season, except for Ty Montgomery who was released after the infamous Rams game.

Now you get into the “what-ifs”. What if the Packers drafted TJ Watt? Where would he have been in the depth chart? Would Dom have only used him in coverage/tackle 5 yards down the field? What if the Packers chose literally anyone else besides Kevin King? Every game, series, and play call would have been different, including the Vikings game where Rodgers probably doesn’t break his collarbone. Which means Capers might’ve kept his job, and McCarthy might now have been fired in 2018.

So now TT hands over the reigns to Gute after an abysmal 2017 season where - you have to replace the entire 2015 draft, find a new DC for a defense that was in shambles, and try to rebuild an offense that saw Adams as the only budding star, and a declining Cobb and Nelson. Then the coaching roulette starts and we enter the MLF era.

The 13-3 2019 season happens, they get their ceremonial exit from the playoffs at the hands of SF, and Rodgers seemed like he was on the decline after coming off 2 injury riddled seasons. He probably needed some more weapons on offense. 2020 draft happens. Controversy everywhere. Little offensive starting help added. Everyone is mad. Packers have the 4th hardest SOS based on the previous year and did nothing. The Packers go on to have the 20th highest scoring offense in NFL history, and the 2nd highest in franchise history. I’m sorry, what? I ask anyone, what was Tee Higgins going to do in that offense? Why would anyone think they couldn’t replicate it in 2021? What, as a GM, do you actually do in this situation? Rightfully fire Pettine after leaving an injured Kevin King on an island against Scotty Miller. The general consensus is that, and Bakh destroying his knee the week before, were the sole reasons the Packers lost. Tee Higgins wasn’t helping that, nor do I believe he would’ve garnered Rodgers attention enough to not hyper-focus on Adams in the 2021 NFCC game, or from the special teams mimicking the 2010 Chargers. Maybe he could’ve taken up Tonyan’s role after the ACL tear. More what-ifs.

Overall, I envy any GM who would have been handed the franchise after 2017. I really don’t know what the answer is, but GO PACK GO!