In the 2023 season, the Baltimore Ravens have scored 30 offensive touchdowns, tied for 2nd most in the NFL with San Francisco behind the Miami Dolphins.

Despite their incredible success on offense, Lamar Jackson has been the most volatile quarterback in fantasy football and the most disappointing in recent weeks, failing to eclipse 14 points in each of the last 3 games in 4pt passing TD formats, despite the fact that the Ravens have posted scores of 31**,** 37**, and** 31 points respectively in those matchups.

The most obvious culprit for this trend is the distribution of passing to rushing touchdowns within the Ravens’ new offense under Todd Monken, with only 11 of the Ravens’ 30 offensive scores coming through the air compared with 19 on the ground, a rate of 36.7% which pales in comparison to the league average in the NFL which lies closer to 60% passing scores to 40% rushing. Even under Greg Roman who was known for focusing his scheme heavily on the run game, the Ravens’ percentage of TDs scored via the pass never dipped below 54%.

The Ravens seem more than content to drive down the field passing the ball and then hammer it in with one of their stable of running backs from any point inside the 10, but it’s worth noting just how much of a historic outlier this trend would be if it continues as no team since 2009 has finished the season with less than 41% of their total offensive touchdowns coming through the air, and as mentioned before the Ravens stand at 36.7% through 9 weeks. Jackson has accounted for 7 of the Ravens’ 19 touchdowns on the ground, but in games where he has not run for a score he has scored 20+ fantasy points only once.

It would make sense to pursue Lamar Jackson and pieces of the Ravens passing offense as buys for the likelihood that this split regresses towards the mean, but also that’s just what I’m telling myself to keep from going completely insane.