https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html
The NFC now has 4 teams with a 95%+ chance of making the playoffs.
The 5th through 7th teams are also highly probably between 74-83%
The only other team with even a shot at sneaking into the playoffs with a 20%+ probability in the NFC, is TB.
There are 8 NFC teams 2+ games below .500 already
The NFC playoffs will likely feature, SF, PHI, DAL, DET, MIN, SEA and probably NO and if not NO, it will be TB… That’s basically your NFC playoff field for 2023, only seeding left to decide.
Meanwhile over in the AFC the picture couldn’t me more unclear beyond the Chiefs.
The Chiefs now have a 99% playoff chance and 60% chance of being the 1 seed, beyond that…
There are 10 teams between 25% and 90% fighting for the final 6 spots… and no one else above 90%.
More crazy, there are 12 teams in the AFC within 2 games of each other with 8 weeks left. (records ranging from 6-3 to 4-5)
There are only 3 teams in the AFC 2+ games below .500
The AFC could realistically end up with 10 or more teams over .500 this year, with only 7 of them obviously able to make the playoffs.
Anyway, I just thought it was interesting how completely different the conferences are shaping up as we head toward the back stretch.
With the NFC playoff picture almost completely decided already, while over in the AFC it looks like almost every team will be in the playoff hunt headed into the final couple weeks if things keep going the same direction.
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Minnesota is going to beat Detroit for the division. Minnesota is one of the most complete teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball and the injury to Kirk actually helped Minnesota. Dobbs is looking better than Kirk, and mobile QB’s are Detroits achilles heel. It would not shock me if Minnesota runs the table and gets the #1 seed over the 49ers via tiebreaker due to their soft schedule moving forward. Every team they face looks beatable, including Detroit.
Detroit is worse than what their record shows. They have had a very soft schedule for the most part, and they are lucky that they have faced back to back inept coaches in McDaniels and Staley otherwise they would have lost their last two. Their defense remains one of the worst in the NFL, with their stats being padded against a ton of shitty QB’s this season. This is basically 2011 all over again with a high powered offense but dog shit defense. They are easily 1 and done in the playoffs. Why other people can’t see that the Lions are pretenders is baffling.
The Eagles by the numbers are actually bigger pretenders than Detroit. Hurts is a mediocre passer and is being carried by that o-line and his NFL best receiving corps. Their secondary is also one of the worst in the NFL. They are going to drop a ton of games as their schedule becomes brutal post BYE week. They are also one and done in the postseason.
The 49ers had very bad injury luck after their 5-0 start, but they came out the BYE week healthy AND got a huge upgrade on defense with Chase Young. They should easily win the NFC West, but I think Minnesota wins the #1 seed via head to head tiebreaker. Still, the 49ers are one of the most complete teams in the NFL and are going to be very dangerous in the postseason.
The NFC South is irrelevant and are losing in the 1st round. The Saints should take it, but who cares since it’s a participation trophy seed.
Based on how things look as of right now, here is what I think the NFC playoff picture will look like
Vikings: 13-4 (wins tiebreaker against the 49ers)
49ers: 13-4
Eagles: 12-5 (Wins tiebreaker against Dallas)
Saints: 9-8
Wild card
Cowboys: 12-5
Seahawks: 10-7 (Wins tiebreaker against Detroit)
Lions: 10-7
Wild Card Round
49ers destroy the Lions 48-13
Seahawks beat the Eagles 30-27
Cowboys destroy the Saints 41-10
Divisional round
Vikings win a close one in OT against the Seahawks 27-24
49ers defeat the Cowboys 24-17
NFC Championship
49ers win their revenge matchup against the Vikings 34-30