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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • Baker’s been the same QB in Tampa as he has been his entire career - super streaky, very inconsistent with high highs and low lows, and is generally bad against good teams.

    There’s nothing wrong with Mayfield as a QB in the league. Hell, Mayfield will almost definitely have a long career as a spot starter and a guy to hold down the fort for a year or two - like Ryan Fitzpatrick. But a team’s ceiling is limited by his inconsistency because he absolutely will throw a team out of a game.












  • All four AFC North teams will reach the playoffs

    The big game of the day in the league’s best division was the Browns’ comeback victory over the first-place Ravens. It pulled Baltimore back closer to the rest of the AFC North field. The Ravens are still in first place at 7-3, but the Browns are a half-game behind at 6-3. So are the Steelers, who won again Sunday despite giving up more yards than they gained – something they’ve now done in all nine of their games. The Bengals lost a tough one to C.J. Stroud and the red-hot Texans, so they’re in last place and on the outside looking in at the moment – even at 5-4.

    If the season ended right now, the Ravens, Browns and Steelers would all be playoff teams, while the 5-4 Bengals would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker for the final spot to the 5-4 Texans. (The Bills, who are 5-4, play on Monday night and could jump both Cincinnati and Houston with a win over Denver.)

    Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

    I do not know how the Steelers are doing this, and I expect it to catch up with them at some point. But right now, all they have to do is go 4-4 the rest of the way for a good chance to get in. Cleveland’s defense is going to keep it in most games, and it just won a shootout on the road against a Baltimore team that had been looking unbeatable. And the Bengals were looking fantastic for more than a month, and they even had a late lead Sunday despite being banged-up and shorthanded on offense before Stroud led another winning drive against them.

    ESPN’s Football Power Index currently projects all four teams with between 30% and 88% chances to make the playoffs. If Cincinnati can beat Baltimore on Thursday (big if, but far from impossible) and tighten things up even further in this division, the likelihood of the AFC North landing all four teams in the postseason will only go up.