Putting aside the overall strength of the draft, outside of a Top (Bottom?) 2 finish in odds, the Raptors have a not insignificant chance of losing their pick, as the protections they included are worse than the one on the first used in the Kawhi trade; that pick was Top 10 protected.
Keep in mind while you’re reading this: The Raptors made this trade when they were the 10th seed with the 7th highest odds in the lottery for a historic draft and included 2 second round picks.
Here are some of the odds for what could happen if the Raptors do not finish 1st or 2nd in lottery odds
| Scenario | Odds of Keeping the Pick (1-4) | Odds of Keeping the Pick (5-6) | Odds of Losing the Pick (7-30) |
|---|---|---|---|
| If 3rd Worst… | 52.1% | 40.8% | 7% |
| If 4th Worst… | 48.1% | 32.9% | 18.9% |
| If 5th Worst… | 42.1% | 21.8% | 36% |
| If 6th Worst… | 37.2% | 8.6% | 54.1% |
| If 7th Worst… | 31.9% | 0% | 68% |
After the 6th odds, the chances of retaining the pick become significantly lower.
The Raptors are currently 3 & 1/2 games behind the Pistons for the best (worst?) odds in the 2024 NBA lottery.
not to mention a new pg, a new coach and new assistant coaches to go along with an entirely new system. it could be WAYYYY worse, but it could also be much better