Putting aside the overall strength of the draft, outside of a Top (Bottom?) 2 finish in odds, the Raptors have a not insignificant chance of losing their pick, as the protections they included are worse than the one on the first used in the Kawhi trade; that pick was Top 10 protected.
Keep in mind while you’re reading this: The Raptors made this trade when they were the 10th seed with the 7th highest odds in the lottery for a historic draft and included 2 second round picks.
Here are some of the odds for what could happen if the Raptors do not finish 1st or 2nd in lottery odds
| Scenario | Odds of Keeping the Pick (1-4) | Odds of Keeping the Pick (5-6) | Odds of Losing the Pick (7-30) |
|---|---|---|---|
| If 3rd Worst… | 52.1% | 40.8% | 7% |
| If 4th Worst… | 48.1% | 32.9% | 18.9% |
| If 5th Worst… | 42.1% | 21.8% | 36% |
| If 6th Worst… | 37.2% | 8.6% | 54.1% |
| If 7th Worst… | 31.9% | 0% | 68% |
After the 6th odds, the chances of retaining the pick become significantly lower.
The Raptors are currently 3 & 1/2 games behind the Pistons for the best (worst?) odds in the 2024 NBA lottery.
This is the worst trade ever. Fucked us for this year. Like literally determined the trajectory of this season or beyond. And Jak isn’t even good. Right now he looks like fucking Mason Plumlee. I hope it conveys this year so it doesn’t continue to haunt us.
Masai’s strength AND weakness is refusing to tank.
yep. he’s really good at making great teams greater. he CAN build a rebuilding team to relevance but it’s not his strongsuit when you compare it to his ability to make really good teams great