I’m sure many of us have read the analytics behind the 3 point shot and why it’s increased so much. The classic example is in a 1 on 1 game where 1 player can only shoot 2’s and the other only 3’s. If both players shoot the league averages of .361 for the 3 point player and .548 for the 2 point player, after 10 shots each the 3 point shooter will have 12 points and the 2 point player 10.

However…the real world doesn’t work quite that way. While the league only shoots .548 on 2’s, the FG% at the rim is .691. If in our previous example the 2 point shooter is able to take every 2PA at the rim after 10 shots that player has 14 and is ahead of the 3 point shooter. For it’s strengths, on average the 3 is still the lowest percentage shot in the game.

We’ve seen the analytical outcome of the value of 3 point shooting in the warriors run. Maybe we are now seeing the analytical adjustment to that, if a team is going to try and beat you with the 3 you push the pace and beat them at the rim. Our offensive sets make us extremely susceptible to this as we park 2 players in the corners and a missed 3 typically creates a long rebound. So the chance of a 2 on 1 or 3 on 2 is extremely high. This situation gets compounded if the Mavs are down and they lean even heavier into 3 point shooting to try and catch up.

What it boils down to…if the Mavs want to be successful shooting the 3 at the rate we are, they’ve got to have a transition defense strong enough to handle the ~60% of those possessions when we miss. Doesn’t have to be elite, just fast/effective enough to not allow a fast break score at the rim.