Top draft picks are overvalued. There’s no guarantee you’ll get the best guy, but there is a guarantee that you’ll have to pay him like one.
Analysis shows that teams draft the correct player 52%, or slightly more than half, of the time. That isn’t because they’re stupid, it’s because there is no way to know. There are rare years where there is a near-sure-thing (Elway, Manning, Luck, Lawrence) but again, those are rare.
Look at where some of the better QBs playing today were drafted and you’ll see that the QBs drafted 1st are rarely the best.
Patrick Mahomes was drafted 10th. Mitch Trubisky went 2nd that year.
Josh Allen was drafted 7th. Baker Mayfield was the 1st player drafted that year, Sam Darnold 3rd. Josh Rosen went #10 that year. Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd that year.
In 2020 they got it right, when Burrow went 1st. Then Tagavailoa went 5 and Herbert 6. We could argue that Herbert is better, but jump down past Jordan Love at pick 26 and find Jalen Hurts with pick 53.
2022 is the prime example: Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ritter, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, Chris Oladokun, and Skylar Thompson were all drafted before Brock Purdy was taken with pick 262.
Dak Prescott was taken 135th overall in a year where Jared Goff went 1 and Carson Wentz 2. Paxton Lynch was 26, and Christian Hackenburg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, and Connor Cook all went before Prescott.
2015 Jameis Winston was the #1 overall pick, Marcus Mariota #2
2019 Kyler Murray was #1 overall pick. Daniel Jones was #6. Both have been failures. Gardner Minshew, by no means a great QB, was taken with pick 178, and you can argue he’d have done at least as well as either Murray or Jones. Even if you disagree there, I think it’s a given that those were wasted draft picks.
The best two QBs to ever play the game?
Joe Montana, drafted 82nd overall
Tom Brady, drafted 199th overall
Top draft picks are overvalued. There’s no guarantee you’ll get the best guy, but there is a guarantee that you’ll have to pay him like one.
Analysis shows that teams draft the correct player 52%, or slightly more than half, of the time. That isn’t because they’re stupid, it’s because there is no way to know. There are rare years where there is a near-sure-thing (Elway, Manning, Luck, Lawrence) but again, those are rare.
Look at where some of the better QBs playing today were drafted and you’ll see that the QBs drafted 1st are rarely the best.
Patrick Mahomes was drafted 10th. Mitch Trubisky went 2nd that year.
Josh Allen was drafted 7th. Baker Mayfield was the 1st player drafted that year, Sam Darnold 3rd. Josh Rosen went #10 that year. Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd that year.
In 2020 they got it right, when Burrow went 1st. Then Tagavailoa went 5 and Herbert 6. We could argue that Herbert is better, but jump down past Jordan Love at pick 26 and find Jalen Hurts with pick 53.
2022 is the prime example: Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ritter, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, Chris Oladokun, and Skylar Thompson were all drafted before Brock Purdy was taken with pick 262.
Dak Prescott was taken 135th overall in a year where Jared Goff went 1 and Carson Wentz 2. Paxton Lynch was 26, and Christian Hackenburg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, and Connor Cook all went before Prescott.
2015 Jameis Winston was the #1 overall pick, Marcus Mariota #2
2019 Kyler Murray was #1 overall pick. Daniel Jones was #6. Both have been failures. Gardner Minshew, by no means a great QB, was taken with pick 178, and you can argue he’d have done at least as well as either Murray or Jones. Even if you disagree there, I think it’s a given that those were wasted draft picks.
The best two QBs to ever play the game?
Joe Montana, drafted 82nd overall
Tom Brady, drafted 199th overall