Who would you prefer
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I’m surprised Penix is the choice. He’s had 4 season-ending injuries in his college career so far, including two ACL tears.
Top draft picks are overvalued. There’s no guarantee you’ll get the best guy, but there is a guarantee that you’ll have to pay him like one.
Analysis shows that teams draft the correct player 52%, or slightly more than half, of the time. That isn’t because they’re stupid, it’s because there is no way to know. There are rare years where there is a near-sure-thing (Elway, Manning, Luck, Lawrence) but again, those are rare.
Look at where some of the better QBs playing today were drafted and you’ll see that the QBs drafted 1st are rarely the best.
Patrick Mahomes was drafted 10th. Mitch Trubisky went 2nd that year.
Josh Allen was drafted 7th. Baker Mayfield was the 1st player drafted that year, Sam Darnold 3rd. Josh Rosen went #10 that year. Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd that year.
In 2020 they got it right, when Burrow went 1st. Then Tagavailoa went 5 and Herbert 6. We could argue that Herbert is better, but jump down past Jordan Love at pick 26 and find Jalen Hurts with pick 53.
2022 is the prime example: Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ritter, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, Chris Oladokun, and Skylar Thompson were all drafted before Brock Purdy was taken with pick 262.
Dak Prescott was taken 135th overall in a year where Jared Goff went 1 and Carson Wentz 2. Paxton Lynch was 26, and Christian Hackenburg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, and Connor Cook all went before Prescott.
2015 Jameis Winston was the #1 overall pick, Marcus Mariota #2
2019 Kyler Murray was #1 overall pick. Daniel Jones was #6. Both have been failures. Gardner Minshew, by no means a great QB, was taken with pick 178, and you can argue he’d have done at least as well as either Murray or Jones. Even if you disagree there, I think it’s a given that those were wasted draft picks.
The best two QBs to ever play the game?
Joe Montana, drafted 82nd overall
Tom Brady, drafted 199th overall*Other……
We don’t NEED a top 5 at this point. If you want Williams or Maye you’ll need 1 or 2/3. Personally if we keep this HC my choice would be Daniels, mobile and can throw it (AP helped recruit Daniels to ASU).
I like Penix a lot as well, but his injury history worries me.
It’s early though so lots of things could change between now and then.
We’ve drafted guys with zero injury history lately and it’s gone down in flames. And then you got guys like Frank Gore who tore both ACLs twice and played 16 seasons at RB. Trust your eyes. Would you rather have an immediate top 12 QB and a franchise guy for the next 7 seasons or Damon Arnette/Cle Ferrell?
If we were full rebuild mode I might like some other guys better. But we’re right there.
It’s why like Penix (have watched him play). His injury history is one of the only things that worries me. That’s for the doctors to decide though. Him or Daniels (in my post for this discussion) would\should have an immediate impact to the team which is why I’m high on getting a QB this year. Let’s be real the last high round QB we drafted was Carr. Now folks are scared to jump for a QB knowing it’s a need (I really like Aidan, but thus far hasn’t shown he’ll be the long term solution). At the early onset this may be one of the best QB classes on recent times, so take your shot when and while you can.
Saying the above doesn’t mean we ignore defense either. Without a bonafide starter at QB however it won’t matter who we get on defense unless they also score 20 a game. We have multiple other picks in the draft to pick up players for iOL/iDL, CB, LB and anything by else we could imagine. This on top of FA. Personally I’m tired of trying for a “mid” QB thinking that will be good enough. The only reason I was semi OK with Jimmy was thinking the team would draft one of the top QBs last year. Now we here we are basically in the same position as before.
Why do we NEED a top 5 pick?
Well ya we don’t ….except if we think there is one QB we want. This years draft, rumor was Ziggy wanted CJ and Mcd wanted Bryce. Ignoring Mcd, if we wanted CJ we would have needed to trade way up.
Bottom line, IMO, is if you think a guy will change the course of your franchise you go get him vs. playing conservative and trying to let him fall.
Someone here used mahomes as an example of being picked at 10……but 2 picks later at 12……houston takes deshaun watson. Maybe they liked Mahomes at 12 but he was gone and they selected watson, and in hindsight Houston would say we should have traded way up to guarantee we got your guy.
We need to get our guy …….
Big Penix Energy