The Chiefs are near the bottom of the league in turnover differential at -5. They are in the territory of some of the absolute dregs of the NFL.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/turnovers.html

The analytics on turnover value is pretty clear-- they’re worth approximately four points.

https://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2011/09/25/the-model-dependent-value-of-a-turnover/#:~:text=In%20the%20case%20of%20the,slope%20of%20the%20scoring%20model.

That’s 20 lost points based entirely on turnover ratio. If the Chiefs were league average on turnovers at zero, they maybe only have one loss despite WR drops. If the Chiefs were having a good year with turnovers, surviving members of the '72 Dolphins are nervously looking at the champagne in their fridges.

Here’s the thing about turnovers-- they are mostly (but not entirely, obviously) LUCK.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/

That’s not to excuse the drops, penalties, lapses, etc. But it is possible that there is less to freak out about here than people are feeling inclined to think. Something to keep in mind…

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