Disclaimer: This is just my hypothesis, but the data seems to trend this way. Sources at bottom.

TLDR: the introduction of EB’s style of offense has reduced our TOP, and that is the main factor causing our defensive regression. To perform well, we need coordinators that complement each other.

Which team dominated the league in TOP last year, and now has fallen outside the TOP (pun intended) 10? You guessed it, our beloved Washington Commanders.

Just as TOP regressed, so has our defensive performance. The fact is, we were a top 3 defensive unit last year. This year, we are bottom 4. And it is not something that is team-specific. Guess who is the #1 defense in the NFL this year? The Cleveland Browns. Guess who leads the league in TOP? The Cleveland Browns. In fact, the top 5 defenses this year are all in the top 8 in terms of TOP.

It makes sense - the more defenses are able to rest, the better they perform. This is especially true for JDR’s style of defense. We cannot discount the fact that in the 4 years he has been here, he has led a top 3 defensive unit 2 times. You’d have to go back to 2009 to even find the last time we fielded a top 10 defense.

Why is our TOP down so much this year? It is EB’s style of offense. We’re all familiar with his standard pass-pass-pass-punt or pass-run-pass-punt decisions. It isn’t hard to see how much of an influence he has on that if you look at KC. Last year, they were 13th in TOP. After losing EB, they’ve moved up to 6th (even though Reid is still calling plays). For us, we moved from 1st to 11th after getting EB. He is certainly having an impact.

To be clear, I’m not saying EB is a bad coordinator or anything. I don’t think he has been particularly great, but I don’t think he is bad either. Heck, KC won the Super Bowl last year with the 13th highest TOP. The issue is that we have to play complimentary football. Football is a team sport after all. Simply put, JDR’s defensive style and EB’s offensive style do not compliment each other. I strongly believe our record would be much better if we kept Turner’s style of offense with Sam to compliment JDR’s defense.

How do we fix this? Personally, the quickest way this season to get some wins is for EB to change his game plan up to incorporate runs more often to chew up clock and let the defense rest. The adjustments JDR would need to make are more related to the conditioning of the players, and that cannot happen mid-season.

We could get rid of JDR this offseason and find someone who better compliments EB’s style of offense. But who else has shown the capability to lead a top 3 defense multiple times in this league? Maybe Baltimore’s DC?

After writing this all out, I had a new idea - we could promote EB to HC, keep Del Rio, and get an OC that is focused on TOP.

Anyways, this is just my stream of consciousness after seeing the TOP stat while having a lazy day at work. Curious to hear everyone’s thoughts.

Sources:

Offense/Defense per year: https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/season/2023/seasontype/2

TOP: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/average-time-of-possession-net-of-ot?date=2023-02-13

Other stats (lots provided): https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/4th-quarter-points-per-game?date=2023-02-13

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