Up:

Tatum

  • Last 3 seasons: 36.1%
  • This season: 38.4%

White

  • Last 3 seasons: 34.7%
  • This season: 41.9%

Hauser

  • First 2 seasons: 42.0%
  • This season: 43.8%

Down:

Holiday

  • Last 3 seasons: 39.5%
  • This season: 34.9%

Horford

  • Last 3 seasons: 39.1%
  • This season: 34.1%

Brown

  • Last 3 seasons: 36.1%
  • This season: 34.0%

Porzingis

  • Last 3 seasons: 36.0%
  • This season: 33.3%

Pritchard

  • First 3 seasons: 40.0%
  • This season: 30.6%

If we figure that shooting variance will adjust +/- 2.0% towards the larger sample size (last 3 seasons) then we can reasonably conclude:

  • White is a much improved shooter and it would be unreasonable for him to fall down to 35% on the year

  • Despite the eye test appearing like Tatum is making everything and Brown is way down, both are roughly around their averages and their percentages should both move back to 36%.

  • The old tax might be hitting Horford and Holiday. I could see then move up to 36-37%, but the days of them being 39% shooters might be past them. Not to say they can’t get hot for a stretch, but expect some cold ones from them too.

  • I don’t believe Pritchard has turned into a bad shooter, but I don’t think he’ll end up as a 40% shooter this year. The difference between 3/10 and 4/10 is what’s happening here, and I think that’s the kind of variance we’ll see with him over 2-3 game stretches. It’s hard to say with his volume if he jumps back up.

  • AnonymousIguana_BEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    Quick reminder that sample sizes are still very small for threes. For example:

    Porzingis is 33% right now on 21/63. If you take away his 1/8 on Monday, when he may have been tired/off, he’s at 20/55 which is 36%- exactly his career average.

    So he goes from average to below average over one game. And he’s high volume- Pritchard is 30% on 15/49, which means that if he hits his next 4 threes he can go all the way up to 36%. One hot night

    A single made shot increases his percentage by 1.5 points. There is no way you can call a season based on that.

    Its easy to think that 14 games Is a good sample size, and it can be for the eye test or higher volume stats- but its still very small for something like threes where players only take a few per game.

    • CarBallAlexOPBEnglish
      1·
      10 months ago

      That’s completely fair. I figured by this point the variance would exist but not by that much. I should have done the math! In any case, everyone is relatively around where we would expect them to be, with the exception of Pritchard. But like you said, low volume.

      I think overall we can reasonably expect all 8 of these guys to be 36%+, which that threat alone makes it more likely the overall percentages go up rather than stay low for guys like Pritchard or Horford