Week 12 Flex Projections
Week 11 Recap
Mean Absolute Error
- Top 100 = 4.9
- RB = 4.6
- WR = 5.4
- TE = 3.6
Decision Success Rate (vs Popular Ranker)
- Top 100 = 70% (66%)
- Flex Range = 68% (65%)
Week 12 Projections
The website has a range plot that displays a players projection and with/without a TD. This isn’t to illustrate floor/ceiling but more to imply how much of a player’s projection is TDs, which in turn does indicate some idea of projected floor/ceiling. The closer to the low end the projection falls, the lower chance of a TD he is being projected. Thanks for reading and feel free to ask questions or leave a comment/criticism. Good luck tomorrow!
Here is a simplified breakdown of how the projections are done by position.
| Matchup | Weather | Implied Team Totals | Spread/Game Script | Touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Opponent Adj. YPC | None | Yes, TD chance | Yes, carries and receptions in games with large spreads | RZ Designed Carries, RZ Routes run |
| WR | WR Coverage M/U based on Fantasypoints.com | Yes, aDOT and Rec’s based on Rotogrinders Weather | Yes, TD chance | Yes, receptions in games with large spreads | RZ 1st Read Tgts, 1st Read Tgts with 20+ AY |
| TE | Opponent Adj. Fpts vs. Slot/Inline/Wide | None | Yes, TD chance | None | RZ 1st Read Tgts |
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Week 12 Projection Range Plot
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Wow pretty high on Addison