Week 12 Flex Projections

Week 11 Recap

Mean Absolute Error

  • Top 100 = 4.9
  • RB = 4.6
  • WR = 5.4
  • TE = 3.6

Decision Success Rate (vs Popular Ranker)

  • Top 100 = 70% (66%)
  • Flex Range = 68% (65%)

Week 12 Projections

The website has a range plot that displays a players projection and with/without a TD. This isn’t to illustrate floor/ceiling but more to imply how much of a player’s projection is TDs, which in turn does indicate some idea of projected floor/ceiling. The closer to the low end the projection falls, the lower chance of a TD he is being projected. Thanks for reading and feel free to ask questions or leave a comment/criticism. Good luck tomorrow!

Here is a simplified breakdown of how the projections are done by position.

Matchup Weather Implied Team Totals Spread/Game Script Touchdowns
RB Opponent Adj. YPC None Yes, TD chance Yes, carries and receptions in games with large spreads RZ Designed Carries, RZ Routes run
WR WR Coverage M/U based on Fantasypoints.com Yes, aDOT and Rec’s based on Rotogrinders Weather Yes, TD chance Yes, receptions in games with large spreads RZ 1st Read Tgts, 1st Read Tgts with 20+ AY
TE Opponent Adj. Fpts vs. Slot/Inline/Wide None Yes, TD chance None RZ 1st Read Tgts

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Week 12 Projection Range Plot

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https://preview.redd.it/76dicfx6a02c1.jpg?width=3300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6cf4fe8d352357bb5bafaed30366b171364c6913

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