Ok, if everything keeps going this way, Nikola Topić is probably the guy we need for the 2024 Draft.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a lottery pick.
CONTEXT :
Point Guard, 6ft6 (198cm), 200lbs, Serbian.
Topic is one of the youngest guys in the draft (18 years and 3 months). Born in August 2025.
2nd professional season.
Son of former Pro Basketball Player, and coach Milenko Topić.
His father, as a player, was World and Euro Champion, and won an Olympic Silver Medalist for Yugoslavia in the late 90’s.
Nikola plays against professionals in the Adriatic League (ABA) and leads his current team.His club is technically Red Star (an ABA and Euroleague Team of Belgrade, Serbia), but he plays on loan for Mega KK at the moment.
Last year, he was loaned to an 8W-9L team at half-season, and had a 15W-5L record with that team for the rest of the season, missing the playoffs by 2 game points (had 30 points and a late equalizer 3pt in that game).
At 17 years old: 33 Minutes / 18.2 Points (54%/33%/86%) / 6.2 Assists.
Those are some of the best offensive stats in the entire league, at any position.
That’s with FIBA rules, slower pace, and way less space.
Some say Red Star want him back at the mid-season this year to play the Euroleague for them.
His current overall player rating in his league is 21.5.Exactly the same as Jokic in the same league during his ABA League MVP season. But Jokic was 1 year and a half older than Topic currently is.
ACHIEVEMENTS:
- U18 FIBA Euro Champion and MVP this summer.
- MVP of the most prestigious Euroleague Youth Tournament (Adidas NGT).
With a huge performance: 49 points, 12 Assists, 11 Fouls Drawn, 20/20 FT, and a historic PIR of 65, in a 21-point come-back win.
For the tournament, Topic averaged 26.8 points (52.9% 3Pts), 32/33 FT (97.0%), 3.8 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 2.0 steals, and 6.2 fouls drawn for a PIR average of 33.5.
STRENGTHS:
- Offensively, this guy has a huge potential: He currently leads his league in Points and Assists (2 teams in his league also play in the Euroleague). Can score, can pass, can hold the ball, can run an offense at a high level.
- Offensively, he low-key reminds me of a young Parker with some flashes of a young Luka (and I’m careful with my words), although they have different profiles and contexts, obviously. Luka was in a league of his own.
- FINISHING is very good. Can finish at the rim in many different situations. The bag is very versatile. Can drive to the basket against giant big Serbians with ease and at will. He can finish with both hands and has no problem being physical on the offense.
- Drives a lot to the Basket. 71% of his shots are made in the paint (baby Tony Parker).
- HANDLING: Comfortable and solid. With both hands.
- VISION/IQ/INSTINCTS are one of the highest in his draft class. Understands and controls pace and rhythm. Good decision-making. Good feel for the game. Does that against seasoned veterans.
- HIS PASSING SKILLS ARE ELITE. Makes some incredible reads and no-look passes all the time, with both hands. Can laser pass off the dribble with either hands. Sees the entire court well, plays with his head high, and makes great reads.
- PICK AND ROLLs are a good part of his game, he plays very well with his bigs.
- He does not have a beautiful shot yet but reports say it’s not very hard to fix, has decent efficiency at the 3pt line (37% last season, 31% this season, on 4.5 attempts/game over 12 games, and can shoot from NBA range). His shoot is already honest enough now, that he can develop it into something teams have to plan against and adjust to.
- Shoots 3’s off the dribble at a better efficiency.
WEAKNESSES:
- Defensively, he’s bad. He honestly tries most of the time. But sometimes he looks too tired or careless to try. To be fair, he’s young, and a lot of him is demanded offensively, so it sometimes feels like he uses the defensive part as a way to rest).
- His mid-range floater isn’t developed enough. It’s often “Finish at the Rim”, “Pass/Pick’n Roll”, or “3 Pt-Shot”.
- His catch-and-shoot 3 is lacking in efficiency compared to off-dribble, scouts say it’s probably because of footwork and mechanics.
- TOV isn’t the lowest out there (3 Turnovers/Game), but he still has a 2/1 Assist-to-turnover Ratio at his young age. So nothing alarming.
- Some say his effective size seems smaller than 6ft6 (tall neck and big head).
CURRENT STATS (small sample size, but coherent with last season):
12 games, in the ABA League:
32 Minutes18.50 Points (51%/31%/86%) - League Leader.6.4 Assists - League Leader.3.6 Rebounds1.3 Steals
WARNING:
I heard somebody say his current contract prevents him from joining the NBA directly next season. haven’t found more sources on that yet. Just a random Youtube comment.
But I don’t know if it’s true, non-negociable, or a deal breaker for the Spurs.
Topic by the end of the year may not be a head and shoulders, way. Better, prospect than other guards in this class. But he has all the makings of a top five selection with his incredible offensive attributes. And among the guard prospects this year, he’s easily the best fit for the Spurs
I think you already did it. Pretty perfect job breaking it down OP so I won’t waste my breath, but for those who haven’t watched him much, I highly recommend you try to find some time to track down some of his videos and clips beyond just the highlights. OP mentioned Tony Parker with his comparisons and I definitely see it. But funny enough, he also reminds me of another former Spurs great in Manu ginobili and his uncanny ability to stop and start and use threat of his athleticism combined with his super high basketball IQ to keep defenders really uncomfortable and always guessing.
He’s a genuinely unbelievable player at getting to the rim and there’s really no reason to believe that won’t translate to the next level, if anything, it’ll be easy for him with increased spacing.
His playmaking is tremendous and he excels in pretty much every facet as a playmaker. That combined with his ability to get to the rim, his intelligence, and his very underrated athleticism, would make him such a great player to stick at the one alongside guys like Victor, Jeremy, Devin who thrive when they can play a bit off ball and cut to their spots. He would draw so much attention from day one and he has the vision to help get guys such easy baskets