I’m making a couple of assumptions here, so please bear with me.
It feels like the biggest factor that makes or breaks a quarterback’s NFL career is the ability to read defenses and react accordingly.
Guys like Brady and Manning weren’t the greatest athletes, but they were off-the-charts with this aspect of the game. Meanwhile, guys like Zach Wilson and Justin Fields seem to read defenses about as well as I read French.
Is it fair to say that this ability is one of the toughest things to assess in a quarterback coming out of college? Or is it that teams that are bad at drafting quarterbacks pay too much attention to the 40-yard cross-body throw and not enough to the more cerebral read/react parts of the game?
There is no fool proof method. To avoid drafting a bust QB the best method is the Parcells rules for drafting a QB.
He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.
He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.
He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn’t ephemeral and that he has lived as “the guy” for some period of time.
He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.