I’m making a couple of assumptions here, so please bear with me.
It feels like the biggest factor that makes or breaks a quarterback’s NFL career is the ability to read defenses and react accordingly.
Guys like Brady and Manning weren’t the greatest athletes, but they were off-the-charts with this aspect of the game. Meanwhile, guys like Zach Wilson and Justin Fields seem to read defenses about as well as I read French.
Is it fair to say that this ability is one of the toughest things to assess in a quarterback coming out of college? Or is it that teams that are bad at drafting quarterbacks pay too much attention to the 40-yard cross-body throw and not enough to the more cerebral read/react parts of the game?
There is no fool proof method. To avoid drafting a bust QB the best method is the Parcells rules for drafting a QB.
He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.
He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.
He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasn’t ephemeral and that he has lived as “the guy” for some period of time.
He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.
This post is over-simplified and filled with misconceptions. You absolutely can evaluate how a QB is reading the field as well as the degree of difficulty in what they are being asked to do. Teams also have interviews and personal workouts that will tell them plenty about the skill of the prospect. At the end of the day, there are 10 other players on offense as well as 100’s of coaches and staff. All of that matters in how the offense performs. Personality, communication skills, ability to get along with other players, and work ethic matter just as much as being able to read the field.
If you think Zach Wilson and Justin Fields are at the same level in reading defenses, then I don’t know what to tell you… maybe watch more football? I would be embarrassed to make a statement that stupid.
Not just reading defenses, but accuracy when throwing the ball. I will take Chad Pennington’s noodle but accurate arm over a guy like Zach every day. Chad hit guys in stride and the really good QB’s read a defense and hit their receivers in stride. If you hit a guy like Garrett Wilson in stride the YAC is going to be insane.
That is the killer about Zach. He really struggles reading the defense and he does not throw an accurate ball at all. The amazing thing is he is still super young. Could he take a couple of more years and just concentrate on footwork and accuracy and become a serviceable QB with insane arm talent? I hope so but right now he cannot be on the field because he doesn’t have the it factor that makes the team around him better and that is what a QB needs to be.