I’m not excusing Geno for the bad throws, but neither of his picks today should of counted. Clear offsides on the first one, and I swear to God the ball hit the ground on the 2nd one that was batted and then caught. They kept showing the reply from an angle you couldn’t see the ball and they finally showed one from the other and you could see the ball hit the ground before his hands did… Refs were complete clowns all game long
Geno is having some bad luck.
Even during his hot streak last year, some of his detractors would keep pointing to the Turnover Worthy Throws stat on PFF to say Geno was making some bad decisions and dangerous throws but was getting lucky.
This year, the regression to the mean is happening and he’s getting unlucky with bad officiating and those dangerous throws actually become interceptions.
Ultimately Geno is a Top 10 QB, not a Top 3 QB, getting Top 15 QB money. The reason he’s Top 10 not Top 3 is precisely due to his one or two big mistakes every game. His ceiling is amazing but his average is always brought down by some really bad moments. We all know his floor is very low but so long as he doesn’t consistently play near his floor, I’d rather stick with what we have than doing anything drastic.
He’s not, though. Last year he was, but approaching the halfway point in 2023 he’s pretty firmly outside the top-10 in most major stats.
By QBR he’s now ranked #13 on the season and he’s been sliding backwards as the DET game carries less and less weight.