Asked a similar question last night that was apparently too open ended, so I want to simplify things. We have an 19 start sample size, which historically is plenty to determine whether or not you have your QB of the future.
Here are some modern QBs and how they fared in their first 19 games:
Zach Wilson: 3546 yards, 56.2% cmp, 13 TDs, 16 INTs, 74.9 QB rating
Josh Allen: 3653 yards, 56.8% cmp, 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 71.4 QB rating
Sam Darnold: 4172 yards, 59.6% cmp, 24 TDs, 24 INTs, 76.6 QB rating
Kenny Pickett: 3734 yards, 62.3% cmp, 12 TDs, 13 INTs, 78 QB rating
Drew Lock: 4333 yards, 59.2% cmp, 24 TDs, 20 INTs, 78.2 QB rating
Daniel Jones: 4437 yards, 61.9% cmp, 29 TDs, 19 INTs, 83 QB rating
Davis Mills: 4320 yards, 65.2% cmp, 26 TDs, 18 INTs, 85.8 QB rating
Kyler Murray: 4508 yards, 64.7% cmp, 24 TDs, 17 INTs, 86.1 QB rating
Tua Tagovailoa: 4144 yards, 67.2% cmp, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 90.7 QB rating
Joe Burrow: 5185 yards, 66.5% cmp, 33 TDs, 16 INTs, 95.1 QB rating
Justin Herbert: 5514 yards, 67.1% cmp, 40 TDs, 13 INTs, 98.7 QB rating
Am I convinced he’s not yet. Do I think he can be it yes. Just because he has flashes and always steps up. I think we win yesterdays game with Kenny playing the whole game, because he is a winner and steps up in big moments. Secondly we were starting to move the ball downfield consistantly in the second quarter until Kenny got injured. With those last two drives and we could’ve lead going into the half or at least been down by a field goal. I also think this game we would’ve won a bit more convincingly than the Rams game. We would’ve been 5-2 and everyone would’ve been happier.
We also have to remember that we were without 2 of our best 3 defensive players yesterday for most of the game which would’ve helped us against the run and the splash plays they got.
Do I think we win against the Jags if we win against them in the playoffs yes.