There A lot of reactions to the OKC Thunder loss, suggesting lineup changes, bringing in more shooters, banishing Killian, playing Ivey or Burks as a starter. There may be merit in these suggestions, but these do not really address the primary reason why we lost to the Thunder last game.
Let’s look at the offense. In the OKC game, we made ten more assists than the Thunder (31 vs 21). We also shot better from three not just in percentages but in actual makes (15/28 vs 13/29). And despite so many turnovers from Cade, we matched the Thunder in points off turnovers. Our main problem offensively is 2P%, but that’s not really the biggest issue as the total points we scored is only second to the points we scored in the home opener.
The problem was on the defensive side of the ball. This game is the first time this season that a team scored more than 105 pts on us (103, 99, 102 vs this game’s 124 by OKC). This is the first game this season that we let a team score more than 30 in a quarter for three quarters after we only allowed that in one quarter for the last three games. We were beat in defensive rebounds by ten (28 vs 38). We gave up six more fouls, resulting to four more FTAs. And this is the first time this season that an opponent shot above 50% from the 2P area against us (41.43%, 43%, 43.07% vs 57.4% by OKC!).
Sure, let us change Killian from the starting lineup as he is shooting poorly and Cade could be better served playing with shooters. But is that addressing the primary issues that arose from the game? Let us not be oblivious to what the data is telling us, which is that we lost the Thunder game because for the first time this season, we did not play good defense. For me, what should be addressed by the coaching staff is our defensive schemes when the opponent has stretch bigs like Chet and Jalen Williams which took away Duren and Stew’s defensive impact. They missed their rotations, especially Duren who is used to rim protecting, which led to four very open threes by Chet. Incidentally, the winning margin is 12 points.
Relax. We actually only lost in the first quarter. The Pistons matched the Thunder the rest of the way. We just need to adjust better defensively.
The starting lineup we’ve been playing pretty much needs to be a top ten defensive lineup every night to make up for the lack of spacing. Can they do that? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet it, it’s hard for such a young team to play consistent defense. Also, our first 3 games were against 3 of the worst regular season offenses last year. The Thunder were the first “real test” and they failed.
Playing Killian + Ausar as our 2/3 just drastically shrinks the margin for error for our offense. I love how hard the starting lineup has been trying on defense and the tenacity they play with, but, the truth is when we play a team of the Thunder’s quality, there’s going to be more games like Monday night, where a good team is creating problems for the defense, and the offense lacks the spacing/firepower to keep up.
If Monty is okay with that, and believes that this is the best way to instill a defense intensity into our young guys, fine with me. Didn’t expect a ton of wins this season anyway. But the lack of spacing is negatively affecting Cade, and I worry it may slightly hinder his development
I think Monty once said that what they want to avoid is Cade taking on more defensive load since he is already leading the offense. If he is partnered with a defensive liability, then he would be spending more effort on defense, which can also hinder his development.
You realize this also precludes Bojan.
These narratives are all spun around one thing: justifying why Ivey isn’t starting. Somehow, in the span of three weeks, Ivey not starting has become an article of faith among some. It must be explained and defended at all costs.
But the same rationale precludes starting Bojan - more so, I’d argue. He’s every bit as weak a defender and probably even weaker, and he’s not a threat to create for anyone else.
First, Ivey actually has a worse DBPM than Bojan last season. If defensive metrics is not your thing, then we can say that Bojan’s offensive prowess for now is greater than Ivey, so you could hope that his offense could mitigate his defensive shortcomings more than Ivey can for now. Third, he at keast has more size than Ivey, so he can be moved to the three while Ausar can move to the 2.
People are underestimating how much the starting lineup has struggled on offense. The starting lineup has been so egregiously bad on offense so far that it would have genuinely needed to be the best defense of the post-handchecking era in order to break even. We’re talking the sort of defense that isn’t even legal anymore.
This is not an exaggeration. The offense has been more than 15 points per 100 possessions worse than last season’s best defense, and its own defense is no better than league average. And given how fundamentally broken it is as an offensive lineup, its scoring is very unlikely to substantively improve.