Disclaimer: it is a long read with a lot of words and pictures.
Worlds-2023 Semifinals is closer and closer, and during my home amateur analysis of T1 vs JDG matchup I was absolutely mesmerised how styles of T1 and JDG perfectly puzzle into each other. They’re basically the Yin and Yang of Worlds 2023, let me show you what I found:
The Paradox of JDG
Which team, do you think has the worst First Blood % (meaning, % of games, when they have FB) from all 4 semifinalists? JDG. 44% only;
Which team, do you think has the worst First Turret % not only from all 4 semifinalists, but almost entire at Worlds? JDG. 33% only – 3rd worst result this tournament after NRG and BDS (25% each);
Which team do you think has lowest turret plates in entire Worlds so far? BDS with 2.75 plate per game, followed by JDG with 3.33 plate;
Heralds? Almost same story – JDG secures only 0.89 Herald per game (or 44% of all), lower is only BLG (0.85), but BLG has way worse WR and longer path to Semis, losing 6 games this Worlds so far, comparing to 2 games of JDG;
Dragons at 15 mins? JDG are lowest from all 4 Semifinalists;
JDG is the only one from all 4 Semifinalists who has negative gold difference at 15 minute: -111.
It doesn’t look very good for JDG until you select 1 more stats, where JDG are the best during this tournament … :
JDG has by far fastest win time entire tournament. They win their games on average at astonishing 27 minute and 32 seconds. Only one from their seven wins was above 30-minute mark: 4th game against KT.
Wait? What?! The team who has really average if not weak early game and has no stats to shine before 15-minute mark has the fastest win? Yes, exactly like this. The average gold graph for JDG game looks like a classic phrase “it was so close, until it wasn’t”:
But … how do they do this? How they win it so brutally quick without constructing lead in early game?
Style of JDG
If I try to put it into 1 sentence, then we can formulate JDG as a team who plays around 2-items powerspike of their champions to force a fight against enemy, win it, take Nashor, and immediately close a game pushing lanes with Baron power, and creating an immense pressure on enemy carries.
It doesn’t mean that JDG plays passive in early game. No, they’re not like KT against DK game 1 waiting for items. Usually they have plan, idea and some early game plays, but a) they’re not perfect; b) they don’t rely on them exclusively as their only win condition. To some degree, early game for JDG is a way to get to 2-items. If they manage to get them quicker – great, if no and early game didn’t go as expected – no problems, we will play slower. At some sense it is exactly “hands diff”. “We know that we fight the best in the world, and we know that our amazing skilled players like 369, knight and Ruler won’t lose lane so hard that we won’t be able to comeback, so we will just play naturally and press the pedal with 2-items”.
Game against BDS: LEC team has a lead, but all main players get 2-items spike, and JDG immediately push the accelerator. Catch Adam, force a flash, force Baron, catch jungler who comes close, take Baron – close game;
Game against BLG: solid 4k lead, early game went better than expected, but gold graph goes nuts the moment main players get 2-items. gg wp;
Game 1 against LNG: a small lead at 20-minute, they patiently wait till Kanavi (!) get 2nd item after Ruler and knight, and immediately press the button – force Baron, force fight, win game. This game against LNG is a perfect example of how JDG plays it.
- Ruler and knight get his 2nd item around 20-minute mark;
- JDG immediately change lane assignment, knight goes top, 369 – bot, and Ruler clears mid;
- They push top, get T1 tower, unlock topside of the map, set a deep vision, but patiently wait, until around 23:30 Kanavi didn’t get his 2nd item;
- 30-seconds after Kanavi get 2nd item, they force a Baron. On vision, knowing that Zika is nearby and Scout has TP. JDG doesn’t care, they know that their spike is stronger and confident that they can execute it better:
Game 3 against LNG: even JDG win a few fights before 20, they don’t bother much and wait for 2 items Kanavi, ruler and knight. The moment Kanavi get 2 items, they immediately catch Scout at mid, transition it to dive under t2, Nashor and game. Relentless and ruthless pressure, non-stop agro – day and night with what they show you 2-3 minutes ago.
Baron of JDG
One of the most impressive JDG’s skill is ability to literally close game from 1-2 pushes with a Baron powerplay. It is a pure art, as for me, which is a combination of everything:
- Setup of lanes. One of JDG characteristics is very interesting: they usually don’t recall immediately after securing a Baron, and take some extra time to set waves in a proper state. It is quite uncommon, as for me, comparing to let’s say West teams;
- Hands diff – players are insanely good at their champions, limits, cooldowns, playing just out of the mind around every micro-cd window;
- Stopwatches. JDG is one of teams who manage to come to key push with a 2 stopwatches enough for them to organise any dive and/or win time if are engaged by enemy team;
- Perfect spacing. When JDG pushes with Baron, they know they best to do it depends on setup. Sometimes it is 2-lane push (mid + bot or top), sometimes it is a 1-lane push. But in any case they play it perfectly:
- Kanavi is always a frontman staying at front of everyone and treating to start an immediate dive on enemy. Sometimes replaced by Missing if he plays Rakan.
- 369 pairs Kanavi and pressures it from the other side, or if MISSING is frontman or 369 is on tank, plays a “protect role” creating a space for Ruler and kight to pressure towers.
Just see this perfection:
T1 Early Game Domination
JDG numbers starts to look more interesting, if we compare them with T1.
- Best KDA? T1
- Best Gold Per Minute and Gold Difference per Minute? T1
- Best First Turret%? T1
- Best dragon control in game? T1
- Best Herald control? T1
- Best lead at 15 minute? T1
T1 are Kings of Early Game, they are masters of the Plan. T1 usually enters Rift with clean plan and execute it, methodically. Everything works for this. How they set lanes, vision, plan jungle path – all is defined by Plan, which they utilise in neutral objects. (see the great example of Faker with Oner cooperation)
T1 playstyle is style of methodical “killers” who build small incremental leads inside their games at the every step. Their usual gold graph is nothing close to JDG:
However, unlike JDG, T1 early games is not just a strong start for their games – it is their key component of the win. The whole path to win for T1 lies from this incremental advantages and early game snowball. Because their skills of teamfights are “lower” to JDG or Gen.G, T1 heavily relies on taking down towers, setting lane priorities, putting deep vision and playing around neutral objects.
T1 vs BLG Game 1: T1 are 6-7k gold ahead at 20 minute and at soul point. 4 minutes of dances and BLG engage on T1, lose a fight because of vision, priority and gold advance – T1 win.
T1 vs BLG Game 2: T1 didn’t make to make a solid lead, but at soul point. BLG has to fight, come from disadvantage, lose fight and game;
T1 vs LNG (any of 3 games): T1 with early game lead, made it to soul point. LNG has to fight, LNG takes a fight in disadvantage (position, lane prio, vision), lose it and lose game;
LNG has no prio, no vision, they don’t see Aatrox, and have no choice but to fight T1 or lose a soul
No late game insurance
One of the key aspects about T1 is their unique utilisation of Gumayusi skills comparing to an average team. T1 using Guma strong skills to … unlock Zeus. They know that Guma and Keria are so good at lane, that they can even 3v2, so they leave them alone to build a lead at lane at set priority and use it to pressure topside map and funnel gold into Zeus. T1 is only Semifinalists and one of a few teams in the world, where toplane is key damage-dealer. Zeus is responsibly for 30% of T1 damage – an insane high number (BLG Bin has for example 22%).
And maybe because of this style, T1 has issues with closing games. Anyone, who watches T1 games in this roster, knows that T1 are very not the best at closing large gold leads and even worse at comebacks. They are not like JDG, and not “gods of teamfights”. T1 early game lead is not a guarantee of a win, but gives a decent chance: 80% of time, when T1 leads gold at 15-minute, they win. But the absence of T1 early-game is even way worse. Throughout the entire 2023, across 134 games, T1 won only 6 times (from ~80 wins) when they were behind in gold by 1K gold.
To put it simply, T1 can lose an already won game with a lead, but barely can win a game from disadvantage. Game with Gen.G was a great example. T1 was in a little lead after 20-minute (around 1K gold), but didn’t manage to secure soul point and has no side-lane pressure because Akali dominates Orianna, and Rumble was in big lead over Aatrox. At the end, T1 with no comfort zone, no vision and lane dominance, lost a key fight at dragon, and lost game:
All of this leads to a crazy fact: T1, despite being way more dominant at early game, on average play way longer games than JDG, around 29 minutes. They are not that good at securing Barons (31 minute game against LNG with no Baron? Easy), and not always immediately “close” game like JDG, showing lower technique in pushing, spacing, and diving enemies.
Quantum super-prediction
All of this, leads us to an interesting superposition. From one hand, JDG are pretty good in countering T1 style.
- Their level of players allow them to not lose that hard early game;
- They clearly have an advantage when it comes to teamfights and pure “hands diff” in key moments.
- JDG are pretty good in punishing mistakes and punishing aggression of opponents.
- JDG botlane is one of the hardest in this game “to gap” at the lane – one of the key T1 components to wins;
From this point of view, we can expect something like JDG vs BLG. Bin’s team is also known for early game aggression and snowballing, and JDG are good in countering such style. They simply “weather the storm”, punish overaggression of BLG and win key fights with a huge skill gap.
But at first, T1 so hardly gapped BLG itself, that their early-game is clearly stronger than BLG.
At second, T1 such annihilated LNG from the map – team who was the only one this year to challenge JDG. LNG has a lot of strength similar to JDG but from different angle. They also were famous for their ability to close games quick, for their beautiful teamfights, and overall team profiles (Zika vs Bin, Scout vs knight, GALA vs Ruler) was quite similar. And yet, T1 just leaves no chances to LNG.
At third, KT and LNG shows that JDG are not Gods. KT shows that if you build solid enough lead, you can execute fights well enough to win over JDG and close a game. LNG shows that KDG can be outfighted. JDG have weaknesses, they are beatable.
JDG, to be honest, creates an impression of team who doesn’t pressure themselves too much. When they lose – they lose, they like “gg go next”, the only time this tournament you can say that JDG sweated for a win was a game-4 against KT, when Ruler and knight played at their limits to carry JDG to win. Such relaxed condition sometimes can lead to a moment when team can’t find a momentum in a critical moment.
What if T1 again come with a great plan and gap early game?
Will JDG be able to execute their fights from disadvantage?
Will Ruler be able to not give botlane prio to Guma?
Will red side first time at this Worlds dominate the game (JDG selects red-side to control dragon pit and removes Keria 5th pick)?
Who will win: incremental methodical plan from 1st minute, or chaotic masters of teamfights and limits?
We will see on Sunday
What an impressive analysis. If everything you wrote is correct, I think the outcome will come down to: