I think this would really good for us and we could potentially get that second back from the Calvin Ridley trade.

  • MaroonedOctopusB
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    1 year ago

    Disagree. I’m skeptical that QBs selected in the Top 5 overall picks are so much significantly more likely to succeed than QBs selected later in the first, second, or third round. Not saying they’re not better, but just saying the odds of a swing and miss are so much higher than the marginal increase in likelihood of a hit that it doesn’t make giving up draft capital worth it.

    For the sake of argument I’m going to call each of these players a ‘hit’ if they’re still starting QB at this point. I’m only starting with 2020 and later since we’re now 3 seasons later.

    • 2020:
      • Top 5 picks
        • Joe Burrow (1) - Hit
        • Tua Tugavailoa (5) - Hit
      • 1st-2nd round picks
        • Justin Herbert (6) - Hit
        • Jordan Love (23) - Hit
        • Jalen Hurts (53) - Hit
    • 2019:
      • Top 5 picks
        • Kyler Murray (1) - Hit
      • 1st-2nd round picks
        • Daniel Jones (6) - Hit
        • Dwayne Haskins (15) - Miss
        • Drew Lock (42) - Miss
    • 2018:
      • Top 5 picks
        • Baker Mayfield (1) - Hit
        • Sam Darnold (3) - Miss
      • 1st-2nd round picks
        • Josh Allen (7) - Hit
        • Josh Rosen (10) - Miss
        • Lamar Jackson (32) - Hit
    • 2017
      • Top 5 picks
        • Mitchel Trubisky (2) - Miss
      • 1st-2nd round picks
        • Patrick Mahomes (10) - Hit
        • Deshaun Watson (12) - Hit
        • Deshone Kizer (52) - Miss
    • 2016
      • Top 5 picks
        • Jared Goff (1) - Hit
        • Carson Wentz (2) - Miss
      • 1st-2nd round picks
        • Paxton Lynch (26) - Miss
        • Christian Hackenberg (51) - Miss

    62.5% of QBs selected in the Top 5 between 2016 and 2020 are starting QBs. 57% of QBs selected between picks 6 and 64 between 2016 and 2020 are currently starting QBs.

    So when you’re giving up significant draft capital to move up to a Top-5 pick, all you’re doing is increasing your odds of success at drafting a QB from 57% to 62.5%. That’s not a major increase.

    In my opinion, the QBs selected outside the top 5 are still significantly likely to succeed and teams should basically never trade up for a QB. A smart team with a Top 5 pick would be wise to trade down in exchange for significant draft capital. In my opinion, it’s better to select 2 QBs between picks 10 and 20 than it is to select 1 Top-5 QB.

    • bodhasattvaB
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      1 year ago

      but every #1 guy was a hit - hence the point of trading for CW or DM