Disagree. I’m skeptical that QBs selected in the Top 5 overall picks are so much significantly more likely to succeed than QBs selected later in the first, second, or third round. Not saying they’re not better, but just saying the odds of a swing and miss are so much higher than the marginal increase in likelihood of a hit that it doesn’t make giving up draft capital worth it.
For the sake of argument I’m going to call each of these players a ‘hit’ if they’re still starting QB at this point. I’m only starting with 2020 and later since we’re now 3 seasons later.
2020:
Top 5 picks
Joe Burrow (1) - Hit
Tua Tugavailoa (5) - Hit
1st-2nd round picks
Justin Herbert (6) - Hit
Jordan Love (23) - Hit
Jalen Hurts (53) - Hit
2019:
Top 5 picks
Kyler Murray (1) - Hit
1st-2nd round picks
Daniel Jones (6) - Hit
Dwayne Haskins (15) - Miss
Drew Lock (42) - Miss
2018:
Top 5 picks
Baker Mayfield (1) - Hit
Sam Darnold (3) - Miss
1st-2nd round picks
Josh Allen (7) - Hit
Josh Rosen (10) - Miss
Lamar Jackson (32) - Hit
2017
Top 5 picks
Mitchel Trubisky (2) - Miss
1st-2nd round picks
Patrick Mahomes (10) - Hit
Deshaun Watson (12) - Hit
Deshone Kizer (52) - Miss
2016
Top 5 picks
Jared Goff (1) - Hit
Carson Wentz (2) - Miss
1st-2nd round picks
Paxton Lynch (26) - Miss
Christian Hackenberg (51) - Miss
62.5% of QBs selected in the Top 5 between 2016 and 2020 are starting QBs. 57% of QBs selected between picks 6 and 64 between 2016 and 2020 are currently starting QBs.
So when you’re giving up significant draft capital to move up to a Top-5 pick, all you’re doing is increasing your odds of success at drafting a QB from 57% to 62.5%. That’s not a major increase.
In my opinion, the QBs selected outside the top 5 are still significantly likely to succeed and teams should basically never trade up for a QB. A smart team with a Top 5 pick would be wise to trade down in exchange for significant draft capital. In my opinion, it’s better to select 2 QBs between picks 10 and 20 than it is to select 1 Top-5 QB.
Disagree. I’m skeptical that QBs selected in the Top 5 overall picks are so much significantly more likely to succeed than QBs selected later in the first, second, or third round. Not saying they’re not better, but just saying the odds of a swing and miss are so much higher than the marginal increase in likelihood of a hit that it doesn’t make giving up draft capital worth it.
For the sake of argument I’m going to call each of these players a ‘hit’ if they’re still starting QB at this point. I’m only starting with 2020 and later since we’re now 3 seasons later.
62.5% of QBs selected in the Top 5 between 2016 and 2020 are starting QBs. 57% of QBs selected between picks 6 and 64 between 2016 and 2020 are currently starting QBs.
So when you’re giving up significant draft capital to move up to a Top-5 pick, all you’re doing is increasing your odds of success at drafting a QB from 57% to 62.5%. That’s not a major increase.
In my opinion, the QBs selected outside the top 5 are still significantly likely to succeed and teams should basically never trade up for a QB. A smart team with a Top 5 pick would be wise to trade down in exchange for significant draft capital. In my opinion, it’s better to select 2 QBs between picks 10 and 20 than it is to select 1 Top-5 QB.
but every #1 guy was a hit - hence the point of trading for CW or DM