I’m skeptical that QBs selected in the Top 5 overall picks are so much significantly more likely to succeed than QBs selected later in the first, second, or third round. Not saying they’re not better, but just saying the odds of a swing and miss are so much higher than the marginal increase in likelihood of a hit that it doesn’t make giving up draft capital worth it.

For the sake of argument I’m going to call each of these players a ‘hit’ if they’re still starting QB at this point. I’m only starting with 2020 and later since we’re now 3 seasons later to exclude players who are clearly going to be replaced after their 3rd year, still on their rookie deal (like Justin Fields and Mac Jones). I stop at 2013 because it’s the 2012 draft class that has RG3 and Andrew Luck (who were starter-worthy up until their injuries tragically ended their career). I feel that 8 years of draft classes is good enough to capture enough data here.

• 2020:
  • Top 5 picks
    • Joe Burrow (1) - Hit
    • Tua Tugavailoa (5) - Hit
  • 1st-2nd round picks
    • Justin Herbert (6) - Hit
    • Jordan Love (23) - Hit
    • Jalen Hurts (53) - Hit
• 2019:
  • Top 5 picks
    • Kyler Murray (1) - Hit
  • 1st-2nd round picks
    • Daniel Jones (6) - Hit
    • Dwayne Haskins (15) - Miss
    • Drew Lock (42) - Miss
• 2018:
  • Top 5 picks
    • Baker Mayfield (1) - Hit
    • Sam Darnold (3) - Miss
  • 1st-2nd round picks
    • Josh Allen (7) - Hit
    • Josh Rosen (10) - Miss
    • Lamar Jackson (32) - Hit
• 2017
  • Top 5 picks
    • Mitchel Trubisky (2) - Miss
  • 1st-2nd round picks
    • Patrick Mahomes (10) - Hit
    • Deshaun Watson (12) - Hit
    • Deshone Kizer (52) - Miss
• 2016
  • Top 5 picks
    • Jared Goff (1) - Hit
    • Carson Wentz (2) - Miss
  • 1st-2nd round picks
    • Paxton Lynch (26) - Miss
    • Christian Hackenberg (51) - Miss
• 2015
  • Top 5 picks
    • Jameis Winston (1) - Miss
    • Marcus Mariota (2) - Miss
• 2014
  • Top 5 picks
    • Blake Bortles (1) - Miss
  • 1st-2nd round picks
    • Johnny Football (22) - Miss
    • Teddy Bridgewater (32) - Miss
    • Derek Carr (36) - Hit
    • Jimmy G (62) - Hit
• 2013
  • Top 5 picks
    • None
  • 1st-2nd round picks
    • EJ Manuel (16) - Miss
    • Geno Smith (39) - Hit

In the top 5 picks, we have 11 QBs from 2013-20. Of those, we have 5 hits. That’s a success rate of 45%.

In the 6th-62nd picks, we have 20 QBs from 2013-20. Of those, there are 11 hits. That’s a success rate of 55%.

So when you’re giving up significant draft capital to move up to a Top-5 pick, you’re not significantly increasing your likelihood of success. Due to the small sample size, I’d hesitate to say that a later-pick QB is better, but there’s just not any data to suggest that a later-round QB is worse either.

In my opinion, the QBs selected outside the top 5 are still significantly likely to succeed and teams should basically never trade up for a QB. A smart team with a Top 5 pick would be wise to trade down in exchange for significant draft capital. In my opinion, it’s better to select 2 QBs between picks 10 and 20 than it is to select 1 Top-5 QB.