I’m skeptical that QBs selected in the Top 5 overall picks are so much significantly more likely to succeed than QBs selected later in the first, second, or third round. Not saying they’re not better, but just saying the odds of a swing and miss are so much higher than the marginal increase in likelihood of a hit that it doesn’t make giving up draft capital worth it.

For the sake of argument I’m going to call each of these players a ‘hit’ if they’re still starting QB at this point. I’m only starting with 2020 and later since we’re now 3 seasons later to exclude players who are clearly going to be replaced after their 3rd year, still on their rookie deal (like Justin Fields and Mac Jones). I stop at 2013 because it’s the 2012 draft class that has RG3 and Andrew Luck (who were starter-worthy up until their injuries tragically ended their career). I feel that 8 years of draft classes is good enough to capture enough data here.

  • 2020:
    • Top 5 picks
      • Joe Burrow (1) - Hit
      • Tua Tugavailoa (5) - Hit
    • 1st-2nd round picks
      • Justin Herbert (6) - Hit
      • Jordan Love (23) - Hit
      • Jalen Hurts (53) - Hit
  • 2019:
    • Top 5 picks
      • Kyler Murray (1) - Hit
    • 1st-2nd round picks
      • Daniel Jones (6) - Hit
      • Dwayne Haskins (15) - Miss
      • Drew Lock (42) - Miss
  • 2018:
    • Top 5 picks
      • Baker Mayfield (1) - Hit
      • Sam Darnold (3) - Miss
    • 1st-2nd round picks
      • Josh Allen (7) - Hit
      • Josh Rosen (10) - Miss
      • Lamar Jackson (32) - Hit
  • 2017
    • Top 5 picks
      • Mitchel Trubisky (2) - Miss
    • 1st-2nd round picks
      • Patrick Mahomes (10) - Hit
      • Deshaun Watson (12) - Hit
      • Deshone Kizer (52) - Miss
  • 2016
    • Top 5 picks
      • Jared Goff (1) - Hit
      • Carson Wentz (2) - Miss
    • 1st-2nd round picks
      • Paxton Lynch (26) - Miss
      • Christian Hackenberg (51) - Miss
  • 2015
    • Top 5 picks
      • Jameis Winston (1) - Miss
      • Marcus Mariota (2) - Miss
  • 2014
    • Top 5 picks
      • Blake Bortles (1) - Miss
    • 1st-2nd round picks
      • Johnny Football (22) - Miss
      • Teddy Bridgewater (32) - Miss
      • Derek Carr (36) - Hit
      • Jimmy G (62) - Hit
  • 2013
    • Top 5 picks
      • None
    • 1st-2nd round picks
      • EJ Manuel (16) - Miss
      • Geno Smith (39) - Hit

In the top 5 picks, we have 11 QBs from 2013-20. Of those, we have 5 hits. That’s a success rate of 45%.

In the 6th-62nd picks, we have 20 QBs from 2013-20. Of those, there are 11 hits. That’s a success rate of 55%.

So when you’re giving up significant draft capital to move up to a Top-5 pick, you’re not significantly increasing your likelihood of success. Due to the small sample size, I’d hesitate to say that a later-pick QB is better, but there’s just not any data to suggest that a later-round QB is worse either.

In my opinion, the QBs selected outside the top 5 are still significantly likely to succeed and teams should basically never trade up for a QB. A smart team with a Top 5 pick would be wise to trade down in exchange for significant draft capital. In my opinion, it’s better to select 2 QBs between picks 10 and 20 than it is to select 1 Top-5 QB.

  • Johnny_K_PigskinBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    A lot to unfold here…

    I think it more or less comes down to player fit, the system, coaching, etc.

    I would say that I disagree with the narrative that if a team needs a QB then that means that they take the top rated QB available…

    It’s just not that simple in my opinion…

    Patrick Mahomes wasn’t the best QB prospect by any means. Not even rated as a First Rounder coming out of College… But the Chiefs and Andy Reid saw more than enough traits in him to trade up and select him…

    Trubisky was selected 2nd overall in that draft for goodness sake…

    While you do make some interesting points, If there is enough belief in a QB or any prospect for that matter, a team will do whatever is necessary to obtain that player…

  • AnukkinEarthwalkerBEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    The only time id say you trade up is if the guy is a perfect match for the system…by that i mean perfect for coach… the scheme…and matches the overall vibe of the team. Ive seen a few falcons media speculate we would have taken Richardson over bijan if he was still on the board. You move up 2 or 3 spots there and get your dude. He looked great for the colts but he would have beem the missing puzzle peace for this offense.l

    Am i glad we have bijan? Uhm sure. But don’t fuck up again at QB… Jayden Daniels is another shot at the perfect centerpiece for this offense. Fields and Richardson would thrivr in this offense. U fucked up both times there. But now is the chance for redemption. Seize the moment. Daniels would come in more polished as far as being able to step in lead this team and move the football one way or another.

    You can’t pass on guys that complete the type offense you want to run 3 fucking years in a row. Yes running backs are important in Smith’s scheme. But… he has stuck half ass dual threat qbs in there. Tannehill… Mariota… ridder. Its obvious thats the type of QB this system needs.

    If we can get a guy that can do all the x and o stuff and run the offense as well as Mariota did…sell play action…make the most beneficial choices in zone reads… but also just take care or the ball in the passing game… we we are golden.

    The upcoming offseason is presenting multiple opportunities to achieve this… trading for fields or drafting maye or daniels are the best options. Kyler has the talent but has not been dedicated to being a student of the game and this offense is pretty complicated and idk… all i do know is if we dont go after one of thesr opportunities its going to set us bsck a few years cause we need nee decision makers