At the end of the game, the Lions had a 4th and two, at the LAC 26. Kicking a 43 yard field goal there would have put them in the lead, and probably would have been what most coaches would have done.
Campbell opted to go for it, and they gained 6 yards and a first down. If you’re Riley Patterson, it would be natural to be feeling like they went for it to avoid putting the game in your hands, or because they wanted to get the ball closer to make the kick easier.
But then, instead of running the ball up the middle (again, like most coaches would have done), they went three straight kneel downs. This actually lost them yards, and put Patterson into the position of kicking a clutch 40 yd game-winning field goal with time expiring. A 40-yard field goal isn’t exactly a record-breaking kick, but it’s not a chip shot either.
It’s also not much different from a 43 yard field goal. You could make the argument that Campbell’s decision actually went and made the kick harder for Patterson. But by kneeling the ball down (and going backwards) three straight times, he sent a message. He was saying “this isn’t about you. I completely trust you to make this kick. Be the hero and win this game for us.”
There’s no question that fans don’t have a ton of trust in Patterson, and for young guy, it would be very easy for him to start doubting himself, too.
But Campbell never did. He had faith in Patterson, and coached like it. And Patterson nailed the kick.
A+ coaching
This subs obsession with Riley has never made sense to me.
He’s one of the best kickers in the league inside 50 yards. He’s incredibly accurate. He just doesn’t have the distance as seen from others, but this isn’t nearly as bad a thing as you’d expect.
Theres been 143 attempted kicks outside 50 and beyond, 100 have been made. Making an expected points for those kicks at ~2.1.
The thing is, you have to then subtract the lost points from giving the ball up at mid-field. The expected points delta vs. a standard touch back is about 1.5. Meaning you’re only expected to net .6 points per 50+ yrs FG kicked.
If you assume the average kicker will make nine 50+ yard attempts this season, that means it will be worth a total of 5.4 points.
The thing is, Riley makes up for this by being more accurate inside of 50 and not missing extra points.
The entire Lions team runs off efficiency and predictability. It’s why ARSB, Renyolds and LaPorta work, and why Jamo, struggles. Trotting Riley out there knowing it’s damn near automatic (at a range) is a good thing.