• 1 Post
  • 3 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: October 25th, 2023

help-circle


  • This subs obsession with Riley has never made sense to me.

    He’s one of the best kickers in the league inside 50 yards. He’s incredibly accurate. He just doesn’t have the distance as seen from others, but this isn’t nearly as bad a thing as you’d expect.

    Theres been 143 attempted kicks outside 50 and beyond, 100 have been made. Making an expected points for those kicks at ~2.1.

    The thing is, you have to then subtract the lost points from giving the ball up at mid-field. The expected points delta vs. a standard touch back is about 1.5. Meaning you’re only expected to net .6 points per 50+ yrs FG kicked.

    If you assume the average kicker will make nine 50+ yard attempts this season, that means it will be worth a total of 5.4 points.

    The thing is, Riley makes up for this by being more accurate inside of 50 and not missing extra points.

    The entire Lions team runs off efficiency and predictability. It’s why ARSB, Renyolds and LaPorta work, and why Jamo, struggles. Trotting Riley out there knowing it’s damn near automatic (at a range) is a good thing.