On paper, the Mavs seem like they should be an above average defensive team with the personnel we added: Josh Green, Derrick Jones Jr., Grant Williams, Dereck Lively, Dante Exum and Maxi Kleber all seem to be pretty good to great defenders. And considering their reputations, Luka and Kyrie are putting in good effort on that end to the point where they don’t seem to be major liabilities. Maybe some will blame Dwight Powell and Tim Hardaway, but…those two guys rated as our two best defenders last year based on some advanced stats like Defensive RAPTOR. Seth Curry is obviously a defensive hole, but he’s not playing a lot of minutes. Hardy was bad last year but the numbers say he’s doing better this year.
So why are the Mavs still in the bottom tier overall (24th in DRTG)?
Let’s start by breaking down each play type to see where our weaknesses are:
| Play Type | Defensive Percentile | Opponent PPP |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Up | 72.4 (9th) | 0.97 |
| Post Up | 65.5 (11th) | 0.94 |
| Off Screen | 48.3 (16th) | 0.98 |
| Pick and Roll (Ball Handler) | 48.3 (16th) | 0.88 |
| Putbacks | 37.9 (19th) | 1.14 |
| Pick and Roll (Man) | 27.6 (21st) | 1.19 |
| Isolation | 27.6 (22nd) | 0.97 |
| Transition | 17.2 (25th) | 1.20 |
| Hand Off | 6.9 (28th) | 1.22 |
Opponent Shooting stats:
| Opponent Shooting (rank from opp’s perspective) | Opponent FGAs | |
|---|---|---|
| Restricted Area | 72% (1st) :( | 25.7 (17th) |
| Non-RA Paint | 50% (5th) | 19.8 (4th) |
| Midrange | 35.7% (26th) | 12.9 (4th) |
| Corner 3 | 32.9% (24th) | 8.2 (15th) |
| Above the break 3 | 38.2% (7th) | 24.9 (20th) |
| Opponent eFG% | 55.9% (3rd) | |
| Opponent 3P% | 36.5% (9th) | 33.4 (8th) |
Other Defensive Stats:
| Stat | Count (Rank) |
|---|---|
| Charges Drawn | 1.3 (1st) |
| Opponent FTA Rate | 0.224 (5th) |
| Opponent TOV% | 15.1 (8th) |
| Contested Shots | 46.8 (14th) |
| Contested Offensive Rebound % | 51.7% (17th) |
| Defensive Rebound Chances (i.e. Mav is closest to the ball) | 59.5 (19th) |
| Blocks | 4.3 (23rd) |
| Steals | 6.7 (25th) |
| Total Rebound Chances | (24th) |
| Defensive Rebounds | 32.1 (25th) |
| Contested 3P Shots | 14.7 (26th) |
| Deflections | 11.9 (26th) |
| Opp Offensive Rebound % | 32.0 (*3rd - [27th from our perspective]) |
| Offensive Rebound Chances (i.e. Mav is closest to ball) | 35.8 (28th) |
| Contested Defensive Rebound % | 14.1% (30th) |
| Contested Total Percentage % | 23.0% (30th) |
We are atrocious at contesting for defensive rebounds and at opponent shooting in the paint and restricted area, and bottom tier in pretty much all of the raw defensive stats (deflections, steals, blocks).
- The fact that we are still top 10 in opponent turnovers is interesting considering how low deflections and steals are, and how much that is forced errors vs. opponent screwups is unknown from the stats.
- The defensive rebounding numbers are kind of damning because our chances at getting the rebound (19th) are better than how many we are getting (25th) or how many contested DREBs we win (30th).
- We are top tier at drawing charges and not giving opponents free throws, but that likely means we are giving them easier looks as well, which is why they dominate us so badly in the paint. They aren’t taking as many attempts in the restricted area maybe due to Lively’s presence, but when they get in there they are scoring.
- We are at least average at contesting shots in general (14th), but it is not translating to a lower opponent effective field goal percentage.
- I am also disappointed that we are good at neither offensive rebounding (27th) nor transition defense (25th). Usually this can be an either-or, depending on which the coach wants to prioritize. Crashing the offensive boards hard can cost you in fast break points, but if you aren’t doing good at either then you’ve got a pretty bad situation.
Clearly a lot of room for improvement here, and it may require more personnel changes to shore this up. Our offense is godly, but without average defense it’s going to be harder to win in the playoffs on offense alone.
Great post… can see the work and thought that’s gone into it. I was hoping to see a some specific control that aligned with some of the findings.
I guess some of the data as you say is hard explain rationally (OReb and Transition Def being both poor shows it’s likely not a proclivity one way or another by likely a case by case poor read, in which case what can you do…?)
I have watched all of the games this year and can say the eye test is:
a) opponents seem to at times during the game hit shots they have no business hitting. Low percentage stuff that’s covered by a defender that just happens to fall. b) perimeter defenders losing their man cutting to the rim and/or not being in position to fully box out following a missed shot. C) a mixture of a) and b) when boxing out the ball has been simply bouncing further or irrationally when rebounding allowing an offensive rebound d) tip rebounding rather than gathering. Powell has been guilty of this (probably due to having unfavourable reach dimensions) where he jumps and attempts to tap the rebound to a place he can gather or to a team mate. This has been a 50/50 play (that I can remember).
The hand off in the paint to a cutting attacker has paid big dividends here because not only have you got a high percent look at the basket, but the strong-side defender has to pivot off their assignment and contest the shot. If the shot is then effected and missed then the original attacker has priority rebound for the tip in.
No stats on this one just anecdotal.