On paper, the Mavs seem like they should be an above average defensive team with the personnel we added: Josh Green, Derrick Jones Jr., Grant Williams, Dereck Lively, Dante Exum and Maxi Kleber all seem to be pretty good to great defenders. And considering their reputations, Luka and Kyrie are putting in good effort on that end to the point where they don’t seem to be major liabilities. Maybe some will blame Dwight Powell and Tim Hardaway, but…those two guys rated as our two best defenders last year based on some advanced stats like Defensive RAPTOR. Seth Curry is obviously a defensive hole, but he’s not playing a lot of minutes. Hardy was bad last year but the numbers say he’s doing better this year.
So why are the Mavs still in the bottom tier overall (24th in DRTG)?
Let’s start by breaking down each play type to see where our weaknesses are:
| Play Type | Defensive Percentile | Opponent PPP |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Up | 72.4 (9th) | 0.97 |
| Post Up | 65.5 (11th) | 0.94 |
| Off Screen | 48.3 (16th) | 0.98 |
| Pick and Roll (Ball Handler) | 48.3 (16th) | 0.88 |
| Putbacks | 37.9 (19th) | 1.14 |
| Pick and Roll (Man) | 27.6 (21st) | 1.19 |
| Isolation | 27.6 (22nd) | 0.97 |
| Transition | 17.2 (25th) | 1.20 |
| Hand Off | 6.9 (28th) | 1.22 |
Opponent Shooting stats:
| Opponent Shooting (rank from opp’s perspective) | Opponent FGAs | |
|---|---|---|
| Restricted Area | 72% (1st) :( | 25.7 (17th) |
| Non-RA Paint | 50% (5th) | 19.8 (4th) |
| Midrange | 35.7% (26th) | 12.9 (4th) |
| Corner 3 | 32.9% (24th) | 8.2 (15th) |
| Above the break 3 | 38.2% (7th) | 24.9 (20th) |
| Opponent eFG% | 55.9% (3rd) | |
| Opponent 3P% | 36.5% (9th) | 33.4 (8th) |
Other Defensive Stats:
| Stat | Count (Rank) |
|---|---|
| Charges Drawn | 1.3 (1st) |
| Opponent FTA Rate | 0.224 (5th) |
| Opponent TOV% | 15.1 (8th) |
| Contested Shots | 46.8 (14th) |
| Contested Offensive Rebound % | 51.7% (17th) |
| Defensive Rebound Chances (i.e. Mav is closest to the ball) | 59.5 (19th) |
| Blocks | 4.3 (23rd) |
| Steals | 6.7 (25th) |
| Total Rebound Chances | (24th) |
| Defensive Rebounds | 32.1 (25th) |
| Contested 3P Shots | 14.7 (26th) |
| Deflections | 11.9 (26th) |
| Opp Offensive Rebound % | 32.0 (*3rd - [27th from our perspective]) |
| Offensive Rebound Chances (i.e. Mav is closest to ball) | 35.8 (28th) |
| Contested Defensive Rebound % | 14.1% (30th) |
| Contested Total Percentage % | 23.0% (30th) |
We are atrocious at contesting for defensive rebounds and at opponent shooting in the paint and restricted area, and bottom tier in pretty much all of the raw defensive stats (deflections, steals, blocks).
- The fact that we are still top 10 in opponent turnovers is interesting considering how low deflections and steals are, and how much that is forced errors vs. opponent screwups is unknown from the stats.
- The defensive rebounding numbers are kind of damning because our chances at getting the rebound (19th) are better than how many we are getting (25th) or how many contested DREBs we win (30th).
- We are top tier at drawing charges and not giving opponents free throws, but that likely means we are giving them easier looks as well, which is why they dominate us so badly in the paint. They aren’t taking as many attempts in the restricted area maybe due to Lively’s presence, but when they get in there they are scoring.
- We are at least average at contesting shots in general (14th), but it is not translating to a lower opponent effective field goal percentage.
- I am also disappointed that we are good at neither offensive rebounding (27th) nor transition defense (25th). Usually this can be an either-or, depending on which the coach wants to prioritize. Crashing the offensive boards hard can cost you in fast break points, but if you aren’t doing good at either then you’ve got a pretty bad situation.
Clearly a lot of room for improvement here, and it may require more personnel changes to shore this up. Our offense is godly, but without average defense it’s going to be harder to win in the playoffs on offense alone.
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so far this season dallas has not really had a complete game with great defense from beginning to end. most games have started off bad and then got locked in during the second half or you had blow outs where the third string was playing. our rating is 24th in the league realistically we are probably in the 17-20 range.
the biggest issue still is rebounding, we have lively but often times players like Powell, Tim, and josh either dont box out or if they do their lack of size and strength compared to centers end up giving up and offensive rebound.
the biggest improvement from this roster outside of a trade will be Omax development, today in the garbage time minutes even though his numbers weren’t great I did see a few times where he had great box outs. he has the size and length to compete for the boards.
right now I think lively has to rotate to help on defense which too often has him out of position for the rebounds and of course he is not strong enough yet to compete with the bigger centers. that will keep as he gets older and trains more. im hoping that by the end of the season he is 5-10 pounds heavier with clean muscle added. he will fair better against bigger centers come playoffs.
We don’t have many good defenders, and the good ones have some limitations. I don’t think there’s a more accurate way to explain why we aren’t good at defense other than just looking at our personnel and how they collectively are an average at best defensive group.
Grant, Josh, DJJ are pretty good but at a size/length disadvantage in a lot of matchups.Lively is a rookie and will take time to become a consistently good defender who can avoid fouls enough to play 30 mpg.
LuKai are doing well but can be taken advantage of in certain matchups.
Hardaway/Hardy/Powell are weaknesses.
Exum is good but doesn’t play much, Maxi has regressed.Our best hopes of improvement within our current roster are Lively developing enough to play consistent D for 30mg, playing Exum more, and Maxi getting healthy.
looks like they need to get at least top 10 in D, the offense is clearly there, so i think it can be a bit lower than most teams but still needs to pick up.
nba champs
2020 Lakers: 11th OFF / 3rd DEF
2019 Raptors: 5th OFF / 5th DEF
2018 Warriors: 3rd OFF / 11th DEF
2017 Warriors: 1st OFF / 2nd DEF
2016 Cavaliers: 3rd OFF / 10th DEF
2015 Warriors: 2nd OFF / 1st DEF
2014 Spurs: 7th OFF / 3rd DEF
2013 Heat: 2nd OFF / 9th DEF
2012 Heat: 8th OFF / 4th DEF
2011 Mavericks: 8th OFF / 8th DEF
2010 Lakers: 11th OFF / 4th DEF
2009 Lakers: 3rd OFF / 6th DEF
2008 Celtics: 10th OFF / 1st DEF
2007 Spurs: 5th OFF / 2nd DEF
2006 Heat: 7th OFF / 9th DEF
2005 Spurs: 8th OFF / 1st DEF
2004 Pistons: 18th OFF / 2nd DEF
2003 Spurs: 7th OFF / 3rd DEF
2002 Lakers: 2nd OFF / 7th DEF
2001 Lakers: 2nd OFF / 21st DEF
2000 Lakers: 5th OFF / 1st DEF
1999 Spurs: 11th OFF / 1st DEF
1998 Bulls: 9th OFF / 3rd DEF
1997 Bulls: 1st OFF / 4th DEF
1996 Bulls: 1st OFF / 1st DEF
1995 Rockets: 7th OFF / 12th DEFGreat content, but without filtering for garbage time on such a small sample, gotta take those numbers with a huge grain of salt.
What may be more relevant to playoff success is how the Mavs’ defense has performed in the clutch so far, and I bet those numbers are pretty good.
Qualitatively, I do agree that transition- and paint- defense are big issues.
I mean Tim hardaway is playing big minutes and he’s a pretty atrocious off ball defender. Dwight Powell can’t protect the rim. We have no size at the 3 and 4 position. Even grant williams is pretty short and ground-bound.
Also, we run a scheme that’s based on help and rotations and running guys off the 3 point line, but we don’t really have the size to contest at the rim with any of our help defenders, and our highest “feel” help defender is kyrie and he’s 6’1”. If we ran a scheme that was based on packing the paint or if we ran a scheme that was based on switching and helping at the rim, the stats would probably be better. For example, against Toronto, if we had just packed the paint and let them shoot 3s, we probably win and don’t give up all those paint points. But I guess the staff wanted to keep our defensive identity and so we were still running Toronto’s players off the 3 point line.
In theory, this scheme should help against better teams by taking away 3 point attempts and funneling teams towards help in the paint where they take a tough runner or floater, but we need more size and length in order to fully actualize this scheme.
At the end of the day Kidd openly says they are trying to simply outscore opponents. So having people run the floor means less people available for defensive rebounds. It also likely means they are focusing more on offense than defense in practice.
What is sad is that Holmes has been so disappointing. I was hoping he could be an upgraded DP. Similarly, we all had a lot of faith in OMax being a rotational player from day one, giving has a wing with size. Maxi might be washed too or maybe just dealing with injury (already).
Now given how many 3P shots we shoot, it means we are super dependent on that high 3P percentage. But what is making me hopeful was the clutch defense. So with the small sample size, it looks like the Mavs can adjust to what is needed when the lights get brighter. Which should be amazing for the playoffs.
Hoping that Lively continues to progress and fingers crossed OMax will be useful for non-garbage minutes after the all-star break.
Great post… can see the work and thought that’s gone into it. I was hoping to see a some specific control that aligned with some of the findings.
I guess some of the data as you say is hard explain rationally (OReb and Transition Def being both poor shows it’s likely not a proclivity one way or another by likely a case by case poor read, in which case what can you do…?)
I have watched all of the games this year and can say the eye test is:
a) opponents seem to at times during the game hit shots they have no business hitting. Low percentage stuff that’s covered by a defender that just happens to fall. b) perimeter defenders losing their man cutting to the rim and/or not being in position to fully box out following a missed shot. C) a mixture of a) and b) when boxing out the ball has been simply bouncing further or irrationally when rebounding allowing an offensive rebound d) tip rebounding rather than gathering. Powell has been guilty of this (probably due to having unfavourable reach dimensions) where he jumps and attempts to tap the rebound to a place he can gather or to a team mate. This has been a 50/50 play (that I can remember).
The hand off in the paint to a cutting attacker has paid big dividends here because not only have you got a high percent look at the basket, but the strong-side defender has to pivot off their assignment and contest the shot. If the shot is then effected and missed then the original attacker has priority rebound for the tip in.
No stats on this one just anecdotal.
OMG such a good analysis post am I in the Mavs subreddit? But shoutout to the other posters I’ve seen a ton of analytical posts lately