Agree with the outcome, disagree somewhat on the reasons.

I think you are putting too much emphasis on new technology to fix the limitations that you imagine are holding back electric cars. From where I sit, the limiting factors on adoption rate aren’t, for the most part, things like range or charging speed. I’m sure there will continue to be some improvements on those fronts, and that’s all good, but the EV technology we have on the road today is already fit-for-purpose.

What’s holding things back more right now are under-developed charging networks (moreso in some parts of the world) and economics.

It took many decades of scaling up production and iterative cost reduction to make gasoline engine vehicles affordable. This is happening a lot quicker with EVs, but it’s still got a few more years to run its course.

Then there’s the whole dynamic of the used car market to consider. A lot of people simply don’t buy new cars. Even after production of electric cars is ramped up and they become dominant in new-car sales, it’ll take a while for them to filter throughout the used market.

The economic “tipping point” that I’m looking for will happen when more people are switching away from gas cars than want to buy new gas cars. Then we may start to see the used market glutted with unwanted gas cars at peanuts prices. That’s what happened to film cameras, and it became almost impossible for companies to keep producing and selling brand new film cameras, even though quite a few people were still shooting film. I could see something like that happening with combustion vehicles.