Agree with the outcome, disagree somewhat on the reasons.

I think you are putting too much emphasis on new technology to fix the limitations that you imagine are holding back electric cars. From where I sit, the limiting factors on adoption rate aren’t, for the most part, things like range or charging speed. I’m sure there will continue to be some improvements on those fronts, and that’s all good, but the EV technology we have on the road today is already fit-for-purpose.

What’s holding things back more right now are under-developed charging networks (moreso in some parts of the world) and economics.

It took many decades of scaling up production and iterative cost reduction to make gasoline engine vehicles affordable. This is happening a lot quicker with EVs, but it’s still got a few more years to run its course.

Then there’s the whole dynamic of the used car market to consider. A lot of people simply don’t buy new cars. Even after production of electric cars is ramped up and they become dominant in new-car sales, it’ll take a while for them to filter throughout the used market.

The economic “tipping point” that I’m looking for will happen when more people are switching away from gas cars than want to buy new gas cars. Then we may start to see the used market glutted with unwanted gas cars at peanuts prices. That’s what happened to film cameras, and it became almost impossible for companies to keep producing and selling brand new film cameras, even though quite a few people were still shooting film. I could see something like that happening with combustion vehicles.

its charging speed, gas cars dont do 500 miles, why does an electric one have too. seems so unfair

The tipping point is now IMHO. Global EV sales are nearing 20%, there’s no going back.

In terms of what you are suggesting…IMHO, 500 mile ranges aren’t going to be a market mover and only featured in more expensive vehicles. Fast charging is where we’re headed, look at KIA, Hyundai

Disagree

The EV revolution is going to occur at the low end. A $25K car with 200 miles of range (if GM wasn’t such a shit show they could have owned this space with the Bolt).

The US is ripe for a low cost car (like the Beetle in the 60’s or the Honda Accord, Datsun 510 in the 70’s). A low-cost, low maintenance, government subsidized EV is exactly what the US needs.

I think GM and Ford are going to continue making huge gas guzzlers (just like they did in the 60’s and 70’s). The wildcard are Chinese EVs. US OEM’s were able to take advantage of patriotism (buy American) which does not exist with Millennials and Gen Z. They will have no trouble watching GM and Ford go out of business while driving a Chinese EV.

Cost is the main problem. Lack of home charging after that.

Longer range and faster charging doesn’t address either of those.

That’s great news!

We could have done this 100 years ago if Big Oil didn’t step in

2025?? Try 2030.

Affordability is the key to EV adoption. Decent specs (250mi and >130kW charging) at a VW Golf Price point would be the tipping point in Europe. Yes premium cars like the Model S, EQS/E and i4 will probably all be pushing 500mi range, but I don’t think they’re going to be cheaper. Just more specs to justify the price.

As a Chinese I’m a little confused, what you’re saying has already been realized in China.

All popular gasoline cars already have EV alternatives at the right price and more power.

In China, we’re talking about a lot of things that could be more advanced - like 700-1000km batteries, faster charging (10-20 minutes to fill up), less range shrinkage in winter, and autonomous driving that is a quantum leap over gasoline cars.

I tried my first 500 mile (RT) road trip in my eqb last weekend. I encountered a few issues charging.

1, the fastest sustained charge I got was 75kW and my car is supposed to go up to 100kW. The others were 40kW (limited by 50kW charger) and 60kW (on a 350kW charger).

2, one of the charges stopped/faulted after 5 minutes, when I was deep into Walmart. Took me like 10 minutes to get back to the car and completely disrupted everything.

3, on the return trip I encountered lines at an EA station at a Wawa. Decided to abandon that charging stop (after taking a leak) and went to “EV institute” at a state highway rest stop. The first charger wouldn’t take payment. But the second one i attempted to use did charge successfully.

Overall, paying just about 11 dollars in energy to go 500 miles is pretty cheap.

That being said, if you explain any of this to any EV-curious ICE driver when they ask you what it’s like road tripping with an EV, it definitely gives them pause. And maybe the Tesla experience is better, but I still saw lines at some supercharger locations.

That being said, if I could even get the full 100kW I think my experience would be very different. Also not having a line at any location would also make things much better.

Overall, I’m not sure if I’d attempt this trip again. It seems like the charging infrastructure is not growing at the same pace as the number of EVs on the road.

The tipping point has already begun. Range and charging speed increases are less important than availability of chargers, both DCFC and Level 2 chargers for condos and apartments.

Cost is the major driver in two areas. While the cost of a new EV is in the range of an average new ICE vehicle, there is very little available on the lower price end and the most significant lower price EV has been discontinued. It was discontinued for good reason, cost of production. Key to continuing up the S-curve is lower price vehicles at volume. This means manufacturing the vehicles at a profit. Starting out selling vehicles at a loss as you become established is common, but you can’t do this at volume.

Many/most/all of the ICE OEMs are supporting their EV line losses from their ICE profits. There is a very real time limit on the ability to continue doing that as ICE sales decline. If the EVs don’t become profitable on their own, something will break. Either the company will go rapidly bankrupt, or the company will drop back to ICE only and slowly fade to a specialized shadow of itself.

My personal prediction is that in a mere two years, the future is EV will be undeniable by even the most ardent.

I don’t see 500 miles being the standard for a long time.