From the Vikings Week 11 Rooting Guide:
- The Vikings make the playoffs in 64.3% of simulated seasons
- Win the division: 12.5%
- Earn a top 2 seed: 4.2%
- Earn the top seed: 0.3%
Here’s how this week’s games impact the Vikings’ chances:
Game | Impact | Playoffs | Division | Top 2 | Top Seed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vikings over Broncos | 54.7% | 24.1% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 0.5% |
Rams over Seahawks | 11.2 | 1.4 | (-0.002) | 0.8 | 0.05 |
Panthers over Cowboys | 10.9 | 1.5 | 0.0009 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
Bears over Lions | 9.2 | 0.7 | 10.4 | 1.9 | 0.05 |
Chargers over Packers | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.02 | |
Giants over Commanders | 1.2 | 0.7 | (-0.0005) | ||
49ers over Buccaneers | 0.3 | 2.6 | 0.006 | (-1.6) | (-0.09) |
Chiefs over Eagles | 0.3 | (-0.02) | (-0.001) | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Texans over Cardinals | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||
Bengals over Ravens | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.0009 | ||
Raiders over Dolphins | 0.009 | 0.005 | 0.0004 | ||
Jaguars over Titans | 0.0009 | 0.0009 | |||
Browns over Steelers | 0.0004 | 0.0 | |||
Jets v Bills |
Values show the impact that the given outcome has on the Vikings’ playoff probabilities.
Impact: The total of all seeding improvements for the Vikings.
Playoffs: The Vikings make the playoffs.
Division: The Vikings win the division.
Top 2: The Vikings secure a top 2 seed.
Top Seed: The Vikings secure the top seed in the NFC.
- A Vikings win raises the probability of making the playoffs to 79.6%, a loss reduces it to 55.5%.
- A Vikings win raises the probability of winning the North to 18.4%, a loss reduces it to 9.1%.
- Root against the Lions and Packers of course, though Cowboys and Seahawks losses have the largest chance of improving the Vikings’ playoff position.
- A Buccaneers loss is good for the Vikings making the playoffs, but if they beat the 49ers that could help in a fight for a top 2 seed.
- The Eagles have a tougher schedule coming up over the next 5 weeks, this would be a good time for them to start dropping some games.
- Cardinals loss only helps if Murray takes them on a run and the Vikings are fighting for WC3 with 8-9 wins.
- Bengals and Raiders wins help strength of schedule tiebreakers.
- Jaguars v Titans, Steelers v Browns, and Jets v Bills are very unlikely to matter. After a quarter million simulated seasons it’s found 3 where a Browns win helps the Vikings, and 2 where a Browns loss helps. Jets v Bills has not mattered in any simulated season.
The Rooting Guide simulates seasons using current betting lines and evaluates how often the changing the result of a particular game changes the Vikings’ playoff seeding.
Have to say I like ESPN’s odds of making the playoffs at 87% better…