From the Vikings Week 11 Rooting Guide:

  • The Vikings make the playoffs in 64.3% of simulated seasons
  • Win the division: 12.5%
  • Earn a top 2 seed: 4.2%
  • Earn the top seed: 0.3%

Here’s how this week’s games impact the Vikings’ chances:

Game Impact Playoffs Division Top 2 Top Seed
Vikings over Broncos 54.7% 24.1% 9.3% 5.5% 0.5%
Rams over Seahawks 11.2 1.4 (-0.002) 0.8 0.05
Panthers over Cowboys 10.9 1.5 0.0009 0.06 0.07
Bears over Lions 9.2 0.7 10.4 1.9 0.05
Chargers over Packers 4.7 3.0 0.3 0.02
Giants over Commanders 1.2 0.7 (-0.0005)
49ers over Buccaneers 0.3 2.6 0.006 (-1.6) (-0.09)
Chiefs over Eagles 0.3 (-0.02) (-0.001) 0.1 0.2
Texans over Cardinals 0.1 0.1
Bengals over Ravens 0.02 0.01 0.0009
Raiders over Dolphins 0.009 0.005 0.0004
Jaguars over Titans 0.0009 0.0009
Browns over Steelers 0.0004 0.0
Jets v Bills

Values show the impact that the given outcome has on the Vikings’ playoff probabilities.
Impact: The total of all seeding improvements for the Vikings.
Playoffs: The Vikings make the playoffs.
Division: The Vikings win the division.
Top 2: The Vikings secure a top 2 seed.
Top Seed: The Vikings secure the top seed in the NFC.

  • A Vikings win raises the probability of making the playoffs to 79.6%, a loss reduces it to 55.5%.
  • A Vikings win raises the probability of winning the North to 18.4%, a loss reduces it to 9.1%.
  • Root against the Lions and Packers of course, though Cowboys and Seahawks losses have the largest chance of improving the Vikings’ playoff position.
  • A Buccaneers loss is good for the Vikings making the playoffs, but if they beat the 49ers that could help in a fight for a top 2 seed.
  • The Eagles have a tougher schedule coming up over the next 5 weeks, this would be a good time for them to start dropping some games.
  • Cardinals loss only helps if Murray takes them on a run and the Vikings are fighting for WC3 with 8-9 wins.
  • Bengals and Raiders wins help strength of schedule tiebreakers.
  • Jaguars v Titans, Steelers v Browns, and Jets v Bills are very unlikely to matter. After a quarter million simulated seasons it’s found 3 where a Browns win helps the Vikings, and 2 where a Browns loss helps. Jets v Bills has not mattered in any simulated season.

The Rooting Guide simulates seasons using current betting lines and evaluates how often the changing the result of a particular game changes the Vikings’ playoff seeding.

  • charlton11B
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    Have to say I like ESPN’s odds of making the playoffs at 87% better…