Vikings Week 11 Rooting Guide

The Vikings make the playoffs in 64.3% of simulated seasons
Win the division: 12.5%
Earn a top 2 seed: 4.2%
Earn the top seed: 0.3%

Here’s how this week’s games impact the Vikings’ chances:

Game	Impact	Playoffs	Division	Top 2	Top Seed
Vikings over Broncos	54.7%	24.1%	9.3%	5.5%	0.5%
Rams over Seahawks	11.2	1.4	(-0.002)	0.8	0.05
Panthers over Cowboys	10.9	1.5	0.0009	0.06	0.07
Bears over Lions	9.2	0.7	10.4	1.9	0.05
Chargers over Packers	4.7	3.0	0.3	0.02
Giants over Commanders	1.2	0.7	(-0.0005)
49ers over Buccaneers	0.3	2.6	0.006	(-1.6)	(-0.09)
Chiefs over Eagles	0.3	(-0.02)	(-0.001)	0.1	0.2
Texans over Cardinals	0.1	0.1
Bengals over Ravens	0.02	0.01	0.0009
Raiders over Dolphins	0.009	0.005	0.0004
Jaguars over Titans	0.0009	0.0009
Browns over Steelers	0.0004	0.0
Jets v Bills

Values show the impact that the given outcome has on the Vikings’ playoff probabilities.
Impact: The total of all seeding improvements for the Vikings.
Playoffs: The Vikings make the playoffs.
Division: The Vikings win the division.
Top 2: The Vikings secure a top 2 seed.
Top Seed: The Vikings secure the top seed in the NFC.

A Vikings win raises the probability of making the playoffs to 79.6%, a loss reduces it to 55.5%.
A Vikings win raises the probability of winning the North to 18.4%, a loss reduces it to 9.1%.
Root against the Lions and Packers of course, though Cowboys and Seahawks losses have the largest chance of improving the Vikings’ playoff position.
A Buccaneers loss is good for the Vikings making the playoffs, but if they beat the 49ers that could help in a fight for a top 2 seed.
The Eagles have a tougher schedule coming up over the next 5 weeks, this would be a good time for them to start dropping some games.
Cardinals loss only helps if Murray takes them on a run and the Vikings are fighting for WC3 with 8-9 wins.
Bengals and Raiders wins help strength of schedule tiebreakers.
Jaguars v Titans, Steelers v Browns, and Jets v Bills are very unlikely to matter. After a quarter million simulated seasons it’s found 3 where a Browns win helps the Vikings, and 2 where a Browns loss helps. Jets v Bills has not mattered in any simulated season.

The Rooting Guide simulates seasons using current betting lines and evaluates how often the changing the result of a particular game changes the Vikings’ playoff seeding.