Welcome to the eleventh iteration of 2023’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.

Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:

1. H2H: Head-to-Head
2. WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
3. WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
4. SOV: Strength of Victory
5. SOS: Strength of Schedule

Week #10 Review

After back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Bengals and Broncos the Bills season is hanging by a thread. They now need to do some heavy lifting and at the same time root for some optimal outcomes from other matchups in the coming weeks. This past week though, they did get some help through losses by the Bengals, Jaguars, Ravens, Chargers, and Jets. Simultaneously though they saw the Colts, Texans, Steelers, and Browns all leave victorious. Week #11 is a new week though and one that the Bills almost must leave with a win but also one full of potential positives for a Bills team in desperate need of something positive.

Rooting Interests Record: 51-67 (LW 8-5)

Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -25 (LW +15 👏*)*

Bengals @ Ravens (Thursday 8:15PM) 👏👏👏

There are two trains of thought here. You root for a Bengals loss pushing them to the edge of the end of their season and out of the playoff picture. You root for a Ravens loss providing a path to potentially better seeing for the Bills. With the Bills string of recent bad play in mind the latter shouldn’t be considered, and the former must be the focus. Assuming this game goes to plan, Week #11 has the potential to begin swimmingly for the Buffalo Bills.

Optimal Outcome: Ravens Victory

Steelers @ Browns (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

Two 6-3 teams playing each other this week is good news for the Bills. While one of these teams will reach 7-3 the other will drop to 6-4 and in striking distance of the Bills. Now the difficult part, what’s the better outcome? Each team is 4-2 in conference play and is 2-1 in non-conference play meaning tiebreakers can’t be a trusty area of focus to analyze. So, here’s what we do, we look at the Bengals. As of right now the Browns are 1-0 against the Bengals while the Steelers are 0-0. Why is this important? In the event of a 3-way tie between the Bills, Browns, and Bengals the H2H tiebreaker that Cincinnati holds is moot, and the Bills would only need worry about their tiebreakers versus the Browns. For now, that’s the only possible outcome for us to identify meaning we root for Cleveland to drop in the standings closer to Buffalo and Cincinnati.

Optimal Outcome: Steelers Victory

Bears @ Lions (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏

There are just two NFC only non-Bills matchups this week meaning only two times do we need to directly shift to an analysis of the SOV of AFC competitors. In that context the Bears have losses to the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers with a victory over the Raiders while the Lions have lost to the Ravens and beaten the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers. With one team losing to three AFC competitors and the other to one that optimal outcome of this game is fairly straightforward.

Optimal Outcome: Lions Victory

Chargers @ Packers (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

The Chargers sit below .500 and on the brink of a complete collapse the result of which would be a major shakeup in Los Angeles. Losing to the Packers would almost immediately initiate that collapse and put an end to another disappointing season for the Chargers. That’s a good thing for the Bills and with the Packers being an inconsequential team to the Bills it’s also the optimal outcome.

Optimal Outcome: Packers Victory

Raiders @ Dolphins (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏👏

So, this is where the Bills are now, they need the Dolphins to drop one more game than they do prior to Week #18 if they want a chance at the AFC East. A few weeks back we wouldn’t think twice about the outcome of this game but with the Raiders recent play and the Dolphins odd ability to struggle there is a chance, albeit a minute one, that the Bills could get that extra loss as early as this week.

Optimal Outcome: Raiders Victory

Giants @ Commanders (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏

Two of the Bills five wins have come against teams playing on FedEx Field this week. This means the result of this game is a wash regarding SOV and SOS for the Bills resulting in us shifting our focus to the SOV of other integral AFC teams. In that context the only AFC team that matters is the Dolphins who have beaten the Giants but have yet to play the Commanders. That means we root for Washington to possibly drop the SOV of Miami in a game that is as close to not having an optimal outcome as you will see at this point in the season.

Optimal Outcome: Commanders Victory

Cowboys @ Panthers (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏

A less than important game takes place in Bills South this week, but it happens to be one with a very clear optimal outcome. The Bills will play the Cowboys later this season and won’t see the Panthers at all during the 2023 season. That means both SOV and SOS are on the line here and while neither are likely to come into play at season’s end, they are still a possibility.

Optimal Outcome: Cowboys Victory

Titans @ Jaguars (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

The Jaguars look like a possible pretender after an embarrassing loss to the 49ers. The Titans are undoubtedly much worse but have a chance to make a statement against the Jaguars and in the process make the AFC South a very interesting division to monitor. Losses by the Jaguars and the Texans moving forward are a good thing for the Bills meaning that in this game a loss by the Jaguars can’t hurt Buffalo’s playoff chances.

Optimal Outcome: Titans Victory

Cardinals @ Texans (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏👏👏

We just rooted for the Jaguars loss, so why not also root for the Texans loss? Easy, they are playing the re-invigorated NFC Cardinals who with Kyler Murray at the helm will be a more difficult out for any team moving forward. Root for Kyler to outduel CJ Stroud providing the Bills a way to jump the Texans in this week’s standings.

Optimal Outcome: Cardinals Victory

Buccaneers @ 49ers (Sunday 4:05PM) 👏

Like Cowboys @ Panthers this game holds very little importance but a clear and obvious optimal outcome. With Buffalo not set to play the 49ers during the regular season but having already beaten the Buccaneers there is some real SOV on the line here. A win by Tampa Bay increases it while a loss drops it, one of those is optimal.

Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers Victory

Jets @ Bills (Sunday 4:25PM) 👏👏👏👏👏

It doesn’t matter how it happens or how it looks but this is a game the Bills need to find a way to win.

Optimal Outcome: Bills Victory

Seahawks @ Rams (Sunday 4:25PM) 👏

The second of our NFC only non-Bills opponent matchups this week pits the Seattle Seahawks against the Los Angeles Rams. In these we look to the SOV of other AFC teams to determine our optimal outcome. That means we focus on the Seahawks losses to the Bengals and Ravens and victory over the Browns as well as the Rams losses to the Bengals and Steelers and win over the Colts. All that leads to this question, which team are the Buffalo Bills currently more likely to require an SOV tiebreaker against, the Ravens or the Steelers. The answer happens to be the one with the worse record, root for the corresponding NFC team to drop this game.

Optimal Outcome: Seahawks Victory

Vikings @ Broncos (Sunday 8:20PM) 👏👏👏

What was thought to be a meaningless game earlier in the season is suddenly fraught with meaning for each team, and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are just 0.5 games ahead of the Broncos after dropping a big game to them on Monday night turning what was a team the Bills could once root for into one they must root against. That starts this week as they take on a Vikings team who may just make the playoffs in the NFC, something the Buffalo Bills need not concern themselves with.

Optimal Outcome: Vikings Victory

Eagles @ Chiefs (Monday 8:15PM) 👏👏👏

Eagles Chiefs comes with an obvious rooting interest, root for Kansas City to drop an important game giving the Bills an outside chance to catch them in the standings. This game is also of further importance as it features the team the Bills will play next week, the Eagles. Root for a hard-fought game between these two as Buffalo is gifted a one-day advantage against a Philadelphia team that may be a part of a must win game for Buffalo in Week #12.

Optimal Outcome: Eagles Victory

Optimal Standings

If all the above games were to go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings (All tiebreakers considered).

1. Chiefs (7-3)**
2. Ravens (8-3)**
3. Jaguars (6-4, .525 SOV)**
4. Dolphins (6-4, .246 SOV)**
5. Steelers (7-3)*
6. Browns (6-4)*
7. Bills (6-5, H2H Win over LVR)*
8. Raiders (6-5, H2H Loss to BUF)
9. Colts (5-5, H2H Win over HOU, 4-3 WLC)
10. Texans (5-5, H2H Loss to IND, H2H Win over CIN)
11. Bengals (5-5, 1-5 WLC, H2H loss to HOU)
12. Titans (4-6, 3-4 WLC)
13. Chargers (4-6, 1-1 DIV, 2-3 WLC)
14. Jets (4-6, 2-5 WLC, H2H Win over DEN)
15. Broncos (4-6, 1-2 DIV, H2H Loss to NYJ)
16. Patriots (2-8)

** Division Leader * Wildcard