One of a narrative before Worlds Finals is WBG luck and their path to Finals. Just for fun let’s actually verify how exactly WBG lucky (spoiler: very-very-very-very much*), and why being drawn against G2 or losing to KT makes things better for WBG and not worse.*

We should start for a first initial draw. Weibo is in pool-4 with DK, BDS and GAM and by rules will be drawn against pool-1 where we have Gen.G, JDG, G2, NRG:

First original draw

We know that G2 are stronger than WBG, at least, in best-of-1 at the start of Worlds, so we would assume that the best outcome for WBG is to get NRG, which is, easy to see, 25% probability.

Disclaimer: you might think for a second “is it a really 25%, it is not guaranteed that NRG will be drawn first, and has a lot of conditions for them to meet”, but actually if you would calculate all possible conditions and conduct a total probability by multiplication law, you will get the same result: 25%. Alternatively, you can simulate all possible draw results here and find that pair NRG-WBG will be in 1/4 of them.

After first stage and win over NRG, WBG ends up in pool 1:0:

Round 2 pre-draw status

In 1:0 pool, let’s be honest, JDG, T1, LNG, BLG and Gen.G are in their own league at the moment, while WBG and G2 second tier and Cloud9 is 3rd tier team. The best outcome for WBG would be Cloud9, followed by G2, so we can assume that in total they had 2/7 probability to get either C9 or G2, and 1/7 for the best result named “Cloud9”.

At the end, Weibo was drawn against G2 (2/7 probability) and lost that game (being very close to win) to be downgraded to 1:1 pool:

Round 3 pre-draw status

Here, arguably, T1 and BLG was considered as a first-tier teams, KT and WBG 2nd-tier and West as 3rd-tier. At the end, it was the only moment of the tournament, when WBG actually wasn’t “lucky”, at least at the first look (we will touch it later) and was drawn against KT, dodging T1 and BLG with probability 5/7.

It didn’t help, and WBG found itself in 1:2 pool with Cloud9, MAD, Fnatic, DK and GAM:

Round 4 pre-draw status

Here most of teams would be considered “easy” except DK, so WBG, most probably, with probability 4/5 wanted to dodge DK and were happy with any other possible draw. In such condition to meet DK would be considered as “unlucky”, but it is not about Weibo this Worlds, and they moved to 2:2 tiebreaker series:

Final Swiss stage draw pre-stage

We know that WBG beat BLG in Semis, and can argue that they should not be scary of anyone here, but 2 moments: 1) any team wants to have the easiest path; 2) TheShy and others multiple times in interviews said that they progress throughout a tournament and every week playing better. Hence, I would assume that WBG would want Fnatic over everyone else, including G2 to whom they lost in 1:0 bracket.

And they get exactly Fnatic, with a probability of 1/5, but they get them! Weibo - in Quarters, and if we conbime their luck in initial draw, Round-2 and Round-5, even skipping their dodge of DK, T1 and BLG in round-3 and round-4, then it would be pretty crazy luck: 1/4*2/7*1/5 = 1/70. Some may argue that we can’t multiple probabilities just like this, because those events are not fully independent, but if you would run simulations and check in how many possible universies WBG has exactly this path, it will be around same number.

But, actually, it was just a beginning. The Quarters draw comes, and WBG luck shines the most:

Pre-Quarters baskets

Exploit the draw system

Here the thing: the draw mechanism for Quarters in a current form is skewed to favor “top-side” of the bracket. Why? Follow the path:

First, we draw both 3:0 teams (in our case JDG and Gen.G) to different sides of the bracket. Then we pair them with two 3:2 teams, leaving the last remaining 3:2 team to wait a partner from 3:1 pool. The first part of the problem here, is that the first pulled 3:1 team will always by default have 3:2 partner. Whoever was selected from 3:1 pool will always be paired with remaining 3:2. The second part of the problem, is that this draw will always be at the topside of the bracket. Because we don’t have here any rules like “no rematches in Quarters from Swiss stage”, this pair 3:1 vs 3:2 will always be at the top.

It means, that it is guaranteed that two 3:2 teams will be always at top, and only one at the bottom. If we assume that 3:2 pool is weaker than 3:1 and 3:0, it biases and skews entire draw to favor topside.

WBG abuses this “bug” with a perfection.

From the draw, their best hope was to get NRG. For this they need first to not be selected by either Gen.G or JDG with 1/3 probablity (2/3 to not be selected first, and then 1/2 to not be selected next). Then they need 1/3 probability that NRG will be drawn as first 3:1 team from the pool to pair with them. And it happens exactly like this! 1/3*1/3 = 1/9 probability to be drawn against NRG, and Weibo did it!

More to this, there are 36 possible draws. NRG-WBG happens in 4 of them. From those 4, in 2 of them JDG is at the topside of the bracket (they being selected first over Gen.G), meaning that Semi Finals WBG to play against JDG and not BLG.

In last remaining universies, Gen.G are paired either with KT or with BLG. I can’t say that Gen.G-BLG is prefered pair not in the meaning that KT is better than BLG, but in the meaning that, I would assume, Gen.G would win playing against their LCK pets. As for me, probability of BLG to pull a miracle and win over Gen.G was higher than KT winning over Gen.G. In such case, we don’t know how WBG would play against LCK (their only game so far against KT was a loss), and we can imagine that series in Semis against Gen.G might go different way.

It means, that only in 1 from 36 possible scenario, WBG was drawn at the topside of the bracket against NRG, and Gen.G playing against BLG! Argubaly they get absolutely best possible scenario…

… Just to win a coin toss against BLG, select a blue side which had 100% WR in their series against BLG. We can assume, that if BLG would won and select blue, we would see the same 100% WR and BLG 3:2 win. 1/2 probability to win a coin toss is added.

At the end, WBG pulled 25% chance in initial draw, 28.5% in round-2 draw, 20% in round-5 draw (dodging really strong opponents in round-3 and round-4 with chance 71.5% and 80%), pulled miracle 11% chance to be paired with NRG in Knockouts, with only 2.7% chance to have exactly same configuration which they have and which arguably is best possible for them, and with 50% won a critical coin toss over blue side for Semifinals.

I mean, that’s quite decent result, if we combine their luck from Swiss and Knockouts, we would get almost same odds as winning middle prize in an average lottery!

Why they should lose to KT?

You might still don’t get my point about losing to KT or not drawing C9. I would argue, that any of this events a) increases chances for them to qualify with 3:1; b) decreases NRG chances (if in 1:1 bracket WBG draw against MAD/FNC/C9/NRG, and reveal KT, it would increase the likelihood of NRG to not make it out). It means that WBG most probably won’t draw against NRG and will find harder time in Quarters. But this is subjective debates.

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