TLDR: Wrote a program that parses the website popcornmachine.net for games, aggregates +/- and minutes for specific lineups.
A bit of a weird post today, not tracking individual game data, but I got bored so I decided to plug in last season’s playoff games into my program to see which players matched LeBron and AD in the frontcourt the best.
This post initially started off as me analyzing which players on our team fit better with LeBron and AD, but I got carried away in tracking data on how Rui, Vando, and Wood fit alongside LeBron and AD. Might still make that into a full post.
Here is data of LeBron James and AD on the court during last year’s playoff run.
lineup data of Bron-AD on the floor together during last year’s playoff run
Here is lineup data of Rui with Bron and AD during last year’s playoff run.
lineup data of Rui-Bron-AD on the floor together during last year’s playoff run
As you can see, Rui complemented the Bron-AD tandem very very well in last year’s playoffs, as their trio was +43, 11 more than just Bron-AD. This is further accentuated when you removed the lineups that Vanderbilt shared with Rui-Bron-AD.
Here is the lineups with Rui-Bron-AD excluding Vando.
lineup data of Rui-Bron-AD on the floor together during last year’s playoff run without Vando
Rui-Bron-AD without Vando was a +53 on 176 minutes. Bron-AD were just +32 without filtering for other players. Btw, this becomes more impressive if you compress the +/- to a per 48 minute basis.
Here is the lineups with Vanderbilt alongside Bron and AD:
lineup data of Vando-Bron-AD on the floor together
Vando-Bron-AD was a -26 in last year’s playoffs. Vando’s lack of shooting really does not go well with Bron and AD. Removing the Rui Hachimura minutes only takes their combination to a -16, which is a big drop off from the +32 of Bron-AD without filtering. (In case your keeping track, that means Bron-AD without Vando was +58).
For anyone curious, small-ball (without Rui or Vando or Tristan Thompson lmfao) was +9 in about 140 minutes, so 23 worse than Bron-AD without filters, so I don’t want anyone advocating for small-ball.
Seeing this data from last year really makes me question why Ham has only played Rui-Bron-AD for 3 minutes this year. Rui was injured, but even in the games with all three of them healthy I just don’t see that combo touch the floor, which is strange cuz it was one of our best combinations last year in the playoffs.
Instead, we can analyze the other big forward we have alongside Bron and AD, Christian Wood.
Here is data for LeBron James and AD on the floor together this season.
lineup data of Bron-AD on the floor together
Bron and AD have shared the floor for 217:15 this season and have been a +37. Close examination of these lineups support my overall point, but here are two more clear indications.
lineup data of Bron-AD without Wood
As you can see, Wood-Bron-AD have played for 54:23 and are +60, whereas Bron-AD without Wood have played for 162:52 and have been a -23 (filtering out the Rui minutes and they are actually -26).
The data has been clear that Bron-AD work better when paired with another large forward to contest for rebounds and provide help defense, but can also space the floor. This season it’s been Wood, last playoffs it was Rui. Ham has done a good job in benching one of Austin or Dlo, but he replaced them with the wrong role. Prince and Cam have both been great, but I think placing Rui or Wood into the starting lineup would really take our team to the next level.
So Bron guards opposing SF?
So what you’re really saying is that Rui should’ve started in last year’s playoff run against a select few teams and that based on that small pool of data, you think that should apply to this team in this regular season across a broader range of teams without as much head-to-head prep and with different teammates?
What you are doing right now is using raw +/- data with no real context or adjustments to try and make sweeping statements about line-ups. +/- is an extremely rudimentary stat and people have always known that you can’t just view it with no context.
Why do you think stuff like PIPM, RAPM, RPM, BPM, RAPTOR, LEBRON, etc. exist/existed? +/- needs adjustments to mean anything.
I’ve seen some of your day-to-day topics but never pay them that much attention because you actually parse out all the stuff that matters – the WHY. Popcornmachine is great not because of the +/-. It’s great because you can actually see the detailed stats of each line-up. You can see WHY a line-up did well. Maybe they shot well. Maybe they out rebounded their opponent. Maybe they got a few blocks and steals and generated TOs. Maybe the opponent shot poorly. Over time, those things equate to something meaningful. But, the +/- is not the point. It’s WHY.