More turnovers generated should also correlate to more total yards.

I think the problem with the way our Steelers are winning is that total yards is likely far more repeatable for a team than turnovers.

It’s too bad we lost 2 ILBs in the last two weeks. Our game plan this week has to be stop the run at all costs and make them beat us with the pass. Hopefully we’re up for the challenge.

Hopefully, we’ll have the better QB this game since they’re on their QB3.

Metrics and models are meant to be predictive. The degree to which they are predictive is important when using them, and their predictive power can change over time. Some models also miss important variables.

For example, I think TJ Watt’s PFF score is always lower than it should be because a lot of his stuff is amazing but, in 95% of cases, isn’t consistent and so does not get factored in - remember their scores are supposed to predict future performance, and if TJ Watt is consistent with someone no one else is, then you just ignore his inappropriately low score.

The “outgained” thing is, generally, predictive, but I think Mike Tomlin may be the sort of consistently good at things that model poorly type of guy, like TJ, where you just ignore the normal modeling.

I’ll see your “correlation does not mean causation” and counter with a “an outlier mean an exception, not the rule”

I also just think generally you’re missing the point about the 400 yards argument. It’s not a “goal” as much as it’s a very prominent talking point about how our offense is… bad. Like 26th in the NFL in points per game both this year and last year bad

Edit: I just realized you cherry picked a game from over 20 years ago to make this argument lmao

We are all dumber for this outlier post. Thank you.