yeah, dismissing the competition is always a good idea
He has to say that or Intel’s stock will tank further.
He is likely aware that Windows on ARM PCs will target the bulk of PCs shipped worldwide: non-gamers.
Why? Because they will be as weak sauce as M1 & M2 Macs on gaming until 29 Oct 2023. After that day it is a different story.
I’ll give an example of tech disruption for the purpose of efficiency that caused a labor union strike.
UAW Strike Could Threaten Ford, GM, and Stellantis’ Already-Tough Transition to EVs
The issue here is that labor would be reduced as the factory floor becomes less labor intensive and new skills are needed when transitioning from combustion engine to EVs.
UAW members at those plants want guarantees that they will not be displaced en masse due to this tech improvements.
Unlike UAW, Intel does not have those legal rights to stick around. Once the parts contracts expire the PC OEMs will make better business decisions like Apple.
In 2016 Intel CEO pointed out that the PC upgrade cycle slowed from 3 years to 5-6 years. This is backed by Intel-backed research from YoY worldwide shipments.
From 2024-2030 Windows on ARM laptops will proliferate because they’re a better value battery-wise, physical-wise and $-wise for non-gamers.
By 2030s within the Windows market Desktop Laptop ARM ~20% ~80% x86 ~80% ~20% Worldwide shipments including gamers & non-gamers ~20% ~80% The companies below ship ~1 billion Android SoC in 2022 with IPs & R&D money backing them
Top Android SoC brands in terms of market share by worldwide shipments
The 1st 2 companies below shipped a little over quarter billion x86 chips in 2022 with IPs & 1/4th the R&D money backing them
Top x86 compatible parts brands in terms of market share by worldwide shipments
Links above points to these brands making ARM PC chips.
ARM SoC makers have more access to leading edge-nodes than Intel. Apple has monopoly on any future node.
It is so limited that the most advanced node Intel has access to is dedicated solely for their mobile chips. Apple’s monopoly allows them to be 1st to 5nm in 2020 & 1st to 3nm in 2023 for all their product stack.
It is likely that the minority of Apple chips will be on 5nm by 2024. Will Intel have any TSMC 5nm-sized parts by next year? Almost all ARM PC chips do.
By 2030s at best x86 will become as relevant as mainframes are today in the time of PCs.
Legacy users will demand it but are the bulk of /r/hardware updated on the latest mainframe products and services are we?
The sole bottleneck is Microsoft in improving 3rd party legacy & future apps to run on ARM chips equally well as x86.
Pat is doing the right things for an Intel turnaround, but I hope this is just CEO talk and not actual dismissal, and this isn’t like Blackberry laughing off the first iPhone. AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Apple are all going to be throwing down in ARM by 2025, so Intel should at least have internal efforts testing and being ready to go so they don’t get caught with their pants down if it does become a major move.
What’s that saying again? Past performance is not indicative of future results?