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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • I did not spend much time speculating how Microsoft would make 2024 Windows 12 on ARM any different from any previous Windows version before it other than better general ARM support via fat binaries and Dynamic Binary Translation (DBT) rather than just SnapDragon.

    What I did spend time on is how Android ARM chip makers + Nvidia & AMD will rollout their hardware based on preexisting IPs.

    • Laptops are just smartphones with a bigger screen, full keyboard, touchpad & at most a 99.5Whr battery.

    • Desktops are just smartphones with a bigger screen, full keyboard, mouse & at most a 1.5kWh PSU.

    All of them will likely focus on laptops 1st for the 1st 2-3 years. Reason being that ~80% of all PCs shipped annually worldwide are laptops.

    Android chip makers would likely not offer ARM PC parts with sockets or slots for replaceable parts. Their Windows on ARM laptops would be more like Macbook Airs than x86 laptops.

    Nvidia & AMD will likely leverage their dGPU IPs and offer laptops more aligned with Macbook Pro M3 Pro & M3 Max. Sockets & slots slightly more likely to occur with them as they have the past experience with it from x86 days.

    ARM PC desktops may be more akin to a Mac mini M3 & M3 Pro among Android chip makers that has zero replaceable parts than x86 ATX desktop in the 1st 2-3 years.

    The top-end palyers would be Nvidia & AMD due to their dGPU IPs and past x86 desktop experience.

    Intel’s reaction to this would be to push legacy-free x86-S SoC for their laptops and eventually their desktops. They may go for both high-end and low-end parts. Good thing Intel decided to start their own dGPU division earlier.

    Legacy x86 will likely halt further R&D and continue to produce 5nm 14th gen Intel chips for another decade or so until demand drops below economic levels. When that occurs then legacy software users & legacy high-end gamers can opt to FPGA their needs or buy from a legacy x86 refurbisher. I wouldn’t be surprised that by year 2078 there would still be tens of thousands 16-bit & 32-bit software users.












  • So 13in MacBook pros are discontinued?

    Likely done for the purpose of economies of scale.

    The sheer volume of MBP 13" M1 & M2 buyers would have improved the MBP 14" volumes when the M3 was used with it.

    Same logic applies to Mac mini being so “empty” for the M1, M2 & likely M3 as it helps subsidizes the lower volume M2 Pro & M3 Pro.

    The M* Max chips subsidizes the M* Ultra inside each Mac Studio considering a M* Max chip can fit into the same chasis as a MBP 14"/16". When pushed you can put a M* Max chip inside a Mac mini.

    Of course HSF noise would be PC OEM-level annoying.




  • He has to say that or Intel’s stock will tank further.

    He is likely aware that Windows on ARM PCs will target the bulk of PCs shipped worldwide: non-gamers.

    Why? Because they will be as weak sauce as M1 & M2 Macs on gaming until 29 Oct 2023. After that day it is a different story.

    I’ll give an example of tech disruption for the purpose of efficiency that caused a labor union strike.

    UAW Strike Could Threaten Ford, GM, and Stellantis’ Already-Tough Transition to EVs

    The issue here is that labor would be reduced as the factory floor becomes less labor intensive and new skills are needed when transitioning from combustion engine to EVs.

    UAW members at those plants want guarantees that they will not be displaced en masse due to this tech improvements.

    Unlike UAW, Intel does not have those legal rights to stick around. Once the parts contracts expire the PC OEMs will make better business decisions like Apple.

    In 2016 Intel CEO pointed out that the PC upgrade cycle slowed from 3 years to 5-6 years. This is backed by Intel-backed research from YoY worldwide shipments.

    From 2024-2030 Windows on ARM laptops will proliferate because they’re a better value battery-wise, physical-wise and $-wise for non-gamers.

    By 2030s within the Windows market Desktop Laptop
    ARM ~20% ~80%
    x86 ~80% ~20%
    Worldwide shipments including gamers & non-gamers ~20% ~80%

    The companies below ship ~1 billion Android SoC in 2022 with IPs & R&D money backing them

    Top Android SoC brands in terms of market share by worldwide shipments

    The 1st 2 companies below shipped a little over quarter billion x86 chips in 2022 with IPs & 1/4th the R&D money backing them

    Top x86 compatible parts brands in terms of market share by worldwide shipments

    Links above points to these brands making ARM PC chips.

    ARM SoC makers have more access to leading edge-nodes than Intel. Apple has monopoly on any future node.

    It is so limited that the most advanced node Intel has access to is dedicated solely for their mobile chips. Apple’s monopoly allows them to be 1st to 5nm in 2020 & 1st to 3nm in 2023 for all their product stack.

    It is likely that the minority of Apple chips will be on 5nm by 2024. Will Intel have any TSMC 5nm-sized parts by next year? Almost all ARM PC chips do.

    By 2030s at best x86 will become as relevant as mainframes are today in the time of PCs.

    Legacy users will demand it but are the bulk of /r/hardware updated on the latest mainframe products and services are we?

    The sole bottleneck is Microsoft in improving 3rd party legacy & future apps to run on ARM chips equally well as x86.